ak turn decision

edtost · #1 12-22-2004, 09:54 PM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, ......

check behind with my new outs, or bet again here?
opponent is too loose, but not incredibly donkish.

eric5148 · #2 12-22-2004, 09:57 PM

Just keep going at it, you've got more outs now. This is pretty standard.

Evan · #3 12-22-2004, 10:12 PM

Your equity against a non reverse dominating pair w/o a diamond is just over 34%. So you need 16% folding equity here to make it +EV to bet. If he's real loose my guess is you don't have it.

I say check.

Lmn55d · #4 12-22-2004, 10:20 PM

I would definitely bet this. First, I think you have greater than 16% folding equity because people often call flop with anything and fold to turn bet. Second, I think you have the best hand a significant amount of time when you are called, so this is partially a value bet and you can check through on the river. The percentage of time you have the best hand and get paid off increases your equity significantly.

eric5148 · #5 12-22-2004, 10:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your equity against a non reverse dominating pair w/o a diamond is just over 34%. So you need 16% folding equity here to make it +EV to bet. If he's real loose my guess is you don't have it.

I say check.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a complicated decision at all. You have a nut flush draw, two overcards, and your AK high might be good. Bet it.

Entity · #6 12-22-2004, 10:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your equity against a non reverse dominating pair w/o a diamond is just over 34%. So you need 16% folding equity here to make it +EV to bet. If he's real loose my guess is you don't have it.

I say check.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but why does opponent have to have a pair here?

Seems like an easy bet HU.

Rob

Evan · #7 12-22-2004, 10:37 PM

Okay, looks like I failed in arguing the other side. I'd bet too but I thought I'd try to make a case for checking. I failed.

billuhbong · #8 12-23-2004, 12:13 AM

i definately disagree with checking, bet this turn

Grease · #9 12-23-2004, 12:16 AM

It's HU, you're betting. If you get called, you get called, but you don't have to be successful every time.