Blackjack Bonus Clearing Question

[Festus22]

Setup: Casino On Net offers an $88 bonus with a 20x playthrough requirement. For ease purposes, let's say you have to bet a total of $1800 to release the bonus. Let's also assume that over this short a term, the house edge is zero.

How do I calculate the probability that I'll lose more than $88 if I bet $3 per hand? What about $5/hand?

(Just a quick reality check - the house edge is actually 0.4% so if I play 600 $3 hands to clear the bonus, I expect to lose maybe $8 during the play through. So I expect to net $80. I can play 4 hands/minute so it will take 2.5 hours to clear betting $3/hand. Therefore, my win rate is $32/Hr. Seem right?)

[vindikation]

Look up on http://www.bonuswhores.com/casino under Casino on Net and it will show you all you need to know about wagering amounts, standard deviation, risk of ruin, etc playing Blackjack.

[playersare]

sounds good to me, but that 888.com promotion was only good for tuesday the 21st. they usually run the same thing once every month though.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
Setup: Casino On Net offers an $88 bonus with a 20x playthrough requirement. For ease purposes, let's say you have to bet a total of $1800 to release the bonus. Let's also assume that over this short a term, the house edge is zero.

How do I calculate the probability that I'll lose more than $88 if I bet $3 per hand? What about $5/hand?

(Just a quick reality check - the house edge is actually 0.4% so if I play 600 $3 hands to clear the bonus, I expect to lose maybe $8 during the play through. So I expect to net $80. I can play 4 hands/minute so it will take 2.5 hours to clear betting $3/hand. Therefore, my win rate is $32/Hr. Seem right?)

[/ QUOTE ]

WR = 88*20 = 1760
EV = -.004*1760 = -7
SD = 1.15*sqrt(1760/3)*3 = 83.5

To be down 88 or more, you have to be .97 SD below the mean (-7 + 83.5x = -88), which will occur 16.6% of the time.

If you do the same calculation for $5 bets, you get 22.7%.

-- Homer