Call here with 85o?

[M.B.E.]

Level VIII on a Stars 55+5 turbo one-table SNG, and there are still seven players. I am chip leader with 3155 before posting ante (25) and big blind (400).

UTG folds, UTG+1 goes allin for 490 total, next two fold, then button goes allin for 1140 total. SB folds. Pot is now 2405 and it's 740 to me to call. If I call and lose both main and side pots, I will still be in fourth place with 1990. If I fold I will be in third place with 2730.

Should I call here with any two cards? If not, should I call with 85o, which is what I had?

[Voltron87]

Fold. 740 chips is a big hit, and the difference between 2000 and 2800 at this level is marked.

I ran some odds......

You need to win 1/3 of the time to win in chipEV. Roughly, but the side pot compliclates things.

If you are against AK and AQ, you are 27% to win. Bad.

AK and 44, you are 26%.

AK and QJ you are 22%.

If youre up against an overpair, I'm not even going to run it.

You need to win at least 1/3 of the time, and I am having trouble finding two hands you are 30% to win. No way to call here.

[ChrisV]

I would fold. Even if a call here is a positive chip EV play, which is open to doubt, the equity gain will be so small that it will not offset the equity you lose by losing the power of a large stack.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold. Even if a call here is a positive chip EV play, which is open to doubt, the equity gain will be so small that it will not offset the equity you lose by losing the power of a large stack.

[/ QUOTE ]


While I would fold as well (the odds are above, they're not good), I disagree with your equity gain argument.


I believe the poster is saying "Well, if I lost I am in decent shape (200 chips). But if I win, damn, I run the streets! with 5600 chips. The question this decision poses is whether a -chipEV play can be +cashEV if winning can give you an insurrmountable lead (5600 chips... against more than 2 players... you should dominate), if the worst outcome is T2000.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to win 1/3 of the time to win in chipEV.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, my pot odds are 2405:740, so I just need to win 24% of the time to be ahead in chipEV. Actually less than that because sometimes when I "lose" I will still have won the side pot (as you mention).

[ QUOTE ]
If you are against AK and AQ, you are 27% to win. Bad.

AK and 44, you are 26%.

AK and QJ you are 22%.

[/ QUOTE ]
Remember that the first guy had only 490 with the big blind at 400 -- he hardly needs a hand as good as these to push. It's fair to say that the second guy should have a decent holding, although not necessarily premium.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You need to win 1/3 of the time to win in chipEV.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, my pot odds are 2405:740, so I just need to win 24% of the time to be ahead in chipEV. Actually less than that because sometimes when I "lose" I will still have won the side pot (as you mention).

[ QUOTE ]
If you are against AK and AQ, you are 27% to win. Bad.

AK and 44, you are 26%.

AK and QJ you are 22%.

[/ QUOTE ]
Remember that the first guy had only 490 with the big blind at 400 -- he hardly needs a hand as good as these to push. It's fair to say that the second guy should have a decent holding, although not necessarily premium.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bah... arithmetic.

As to the "premium hands" comment, it doesn't matter whether you run it AK AQ 85 ir J10 KQ. I'm making the wild leap you're up against overcards at least. If you think you not up against overs/overs or overs/pair, that's wishfull thinking. And if all the overcard combos com in at 22-27, overpair opponents put you in the hole bigtime. Enough so that you're not 24% to win in any realistic situation.

[Strollen]

It looks like that for most hands assuming the UTG hand isn't a premium, the pot odds are basically a wash. However, if one of the hands is an overpair you are hosed, as you are if somebody holds an 8 or 5. (i.e. UTG pushed with A5s,K8s). The only way you do well is if one of the two other hands are dominated and the odds that the small stack hand dominates the large stack I think are very slim.

Still this is an interesingt exercise in pot odds because everyone inituation that this is an easy fold, isn't really true.

[Voltron87]

The odds arent a wash. They are a wash at the perfect scenario. They are terrible if they are anything buy the best you can expect.

[ChrisV]

Arguing situationally rather than with chip EV, then, the 5600 chip outcome will only come up one time in 4-5 or so. The rest of the time you drop from 2800 to 2000. While the 5600 chip stack is a big advantage, it is not worth 3-4 drops from 2800 to 2000. Those drops are pretty significant at this level. They're the difference between constant desperation allins and being able to pick your spots a little.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm making the wild leap you're up against overcards at least. If you think you not up against overs/overs or overs/pair, that's wishfull thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]
I folded, and the opponents showed A3o (490 stack) and AJo (1140 stack). I concede that this combination was among the most favourable I could expect with my 85o, but that said it did not come as a huge surprise. It's great for me that the first guy's kicker was less than both my cards, but even if he had held A6 or A7 it wouldn't have been too bad.

So let's figure the precise chipEV, first with the actual hands and then with various other possibilities.

Against A3 and AJ: 61.9% of the time I lose 740 (z=673438), 35.6% of the time I win 2405 (z=673437), and 2.5% of the time I win 560. ChipEV is <font color="red">+ 412</font>.

Against 77 and AJ: 66.2% I lose 740 (z=673445), 20.1% I win 2405 (z=673444), and 13.7% I win 560. ChipEV is <font color="red">+ 70</font>.

Against QJ and AK: 63.6% I lose 740 (z=673453), 23.4% I win 2405 (z=673452), and 13% I win 560. ChipEV is <font color="red">+ 165</font>.

Against A3 and TT: 84.0% I lose 740 (z=673460), 15.2% I win 2405 (z=673458), and 0.8% I win 560. ChipEV is <font color="red">-252</font>.

Against A5 and KQs: 70.1% I lose 740 (z=673467), 17.8% I win 2405 (z=673466), and 12.1% I win 560. ChipEV is <font color="red">-23</font>.

(I've glossed over ties in these calculations; that shouldn't make much of a difference.)

So I'm in serious trouble only when one of my opponents has a pocket pair greater than 77. Even when I'm dominated in one place (as in the last example when someone had A5), my chipEV is only slightly negative. In just about every other reasonable scenario, I have positive chipEV, sometimes by a nice margin as where I'm against A3 and AJ.

Now what about cashEV? The 740 chips is a quarter of my stack, not a trivial matter by any means but I am still in fourth place if I call and lose. If I win, then not only have I knocked out two players, bringing me closer to the money, but I'll have the biggest stack and, as it will be bubble time, I'll be in a great position to bully the other players who are afraid of finishing 4th or 5th.

Overall, the more I think about it, the more I think that both the chipEV and cashEV factors dictated a call in this spot.