Play pot odds or save my chips?

[UMTerp]

This was the first time in weeks that I can remember I really had to sit and contemplate a preflop decision. What to do here? Antes (50) have kicked in at this point. I don't remember if this was a $25+$2 Turbo or a $55+$5 Turbo - I play about half and half, and I really can't tell that much difference between them.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (5 handed) converter

UTG (t3590)
MP (t2965)
Button (t3985)
Hero (t1965)
BB (t995)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, MP folds, Button folds.

What's Hero's action??

Now I know that 53s is going to win about 40% of the time against a random hand, and even if I'm 100% sure that the big blind is going to call/push, I'm risking 645 chips to win 1495, so I'm certainly getting the odds. Though if I pass, I've still got a manageable stack with possibly a tiny bit of folding equity, and I have 4 more hands to pick from before I'm forced in. If I call and lose, I'm in pretty bad shape.

Opinions??

[UMTerp]

I guess this is more or less a math problem - I'll try to crunch some numbers:

53s vs. a random hand wins 0.3969396 of the time.

Using an ICM calculator,

If FOLD: 1615 chips remain, equity = 0.1361

IF ALL-IN:

If lose, 970 chips remain; equity = 0.0860
If win, 3110 chips; equity = 0.2380

(0.3969396)(0.2380)+(0.6030604)(0.0860) = 0.1463

So by the math, it's a call, but barely. I dunno - it's really close, I guess that's why I struggled with it so much.

FWIW, I folded, and ended up taking 2nd.

Do most of you call or fold in situations like this??

[betgo]

Play the pot odds. The blinds are too big. 53s is not that bad against a random hand, with its straight and flush possibilities.

There is pretty much no chance the BB will fold.

[pooh74]

fold...but thats just me

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]

There is pretty much no chance the BB will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

isnt that the reason this is an easy fold? U want some fold equity in a situation like this where you're going to be either a little behind or way behind on the hand? I would rather have the BB have a similar stack to mine to make this move here...give him more to lose.

[El Maximo]

Good Post Terp. I tend to be aggressive vs. "play it safe" when Im short-stacked and I have a slight edge. I dont know if this is correct strategy or not. Im making the assumption Ill generate a higher ROI long-term playing this way.

[betgo]

You are risking 645 chips. The pot has 2045 chips. If you have a 40% chance of winning, you expect to win 820 chips, so that is an expected 175 chip gain. You have no folding equity, but the pot odds make up for it.

[ColdestCall]

I would probably fold here and look for an opportunity to move in with a better hand. A lot would depend, however, on the texture of the game. If the other players were reasonably passive and I thought there was some chance it might get folded to me on the button next round, this would encourage me to fold. If the players were such that I thought it likely that I'd be facing all-ins from players acting before me on the next couple of hands, I'd probably push and take my shot here. If the game were somewhere in between, I'd probably think for a while and do whatever felt right at the moment.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably fold here and look for an opportunity to move in with a better hand. A lot would depend, however, on the texture of the game. If the other players were reasonably passive and I thought there was some chance it might get folded to me on the button next round, this would encourage me to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's actually what made my decision. The game was fairly passive, and I believe I stole the blinds (which were obviously very significant at the time) the next time I pushed with my ~1600 stack. If I felt that blind-stealing wasn't possible given the game texture, I'd have more than likely pushed my 53s, as it is correct given the odds I'm getting, no other factors considered.

I think a lot of people, even 2+2'ers, lose a lot of (long-term) money in situations similar to this one, because many players will fold this without a second thought, and it's just not correct a good perecentage of the time.

And I'm still not 100% convinced it was correct here, even though the game was fairly passive, and even though it worked out OK. It's really very very close. That's why I posted the hand.

[ChrisV]

If you go allin here and lose, you will have lost folding equity completely. Because of this, the answer depends on how valuable that folding equity is. If this is a tight table, the 175 chips you gain here by going allin will not be sufficient to compensate you for being able to steal 900 chips. On the other hand if there's a good chance of getting called when you move in, you should take your chances here and grab the equity.

People are usually too tight on the bubble, so I imagine the correct answer here would mostly be to fold and then go allin next time it folds to you.