Does anyone fold to river reraise when backdoor flush hits?

[AncientPC]

Is this an auto-fold or a crying call?

Texas Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1) - 2004/12/20 - 17:55:28 (EST)
Seat 6 is the button.
Seat 1: Nik_brown ($135.25 in chips)
Seat 2: Ikjaer ($111.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Hero ($81.25 in chips)
Seat 4: Villain ($81.25 in chips)
Seat 5: tuggi ($76.25 in chips)
Seat 6: Quiksilva ($45.50 in chips)
Nik_brown: posts small blind $0.50
Ikjaer: posts big blind $1
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Hero [Qs Ad]
Hero: raises to $4
Villain: calls $4
tuggi: folds
Quiksilva: calls $4
Nik_brown: folds
Ikjaer: folds
----- FLOP ----- [9d Th As]
Hero: bets $7
Villain: calls $7
Quiksilva: calls $7
----- TURN ----- [9d Th As][4h]
Hero: bets $15
Villain: calls $15
Quiksilva: folds
----- RIVER ----- [9d Th As 4h][7h]
Hero: bets $15
Villain: raises to $45
Hero: calls $30
----- SHOW DOWN ----- (in white)
<font color="white">Villain: shows [6h Ah] (A Flush, Ace high)
Hero: mucks hand
Villain collected $151.50 from Main pot</font>

[TheWorstPlayer]

Bet more on the flop and the turn. And I'd say this is a fold. It is quite clear what you have. I would expect to be beaten here by AK, A10 or a set if not by the backdoor flush.

[soah]

I don't see any reason to bet the river in the first place. Get more money in on the flop and the turn instead. You can get value from people chasing draws on the flop and turn (and you need to protect your hand from those draws) but no one is calling you on the river without a made hand. And with all the cards out, one pair is a pretty marginal made hand. Plus your opponents have a good idea of where you are at. Check behind with top pair and laugh at morons that pay a bunch to suck out on you and then fail to extract any value when they hit.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I don't think he can "check behind" since Villain has position on him. But I definitely agree that he should have bet more on the flop and the turn.

[soah]

I misread. I would still bet more on the flop and turn though. On the river, IF I bet I would bet at least half pot. The bets throughout the hand have been showing increasing weakness, and someone that missed their straight might be tempted to raise here on a bluff. If my intention is to catch a bluff, then I'd rather check. If I'm hoping to prevent a bluff, I bet more.

Given the way the hand was played, I call the raise. The small bets are presumably intended to trick weaker hands into calling. Since I have a respectable hand and may have induced a bluff, I have to call. I don't often play top pair in this fashion though so I'm sort of guessing at how often this raise will be a bluff.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I also don't play TP like this, but I doubt too many people bluff raise the river at this level. The problem here is that people call too much, so most people expect to get called when they raise. This raise is probably from a hand that beats TP 90% of the time, at least, imo.

[Jonny]

I would fold to the raise on the river for sure.

[soah]

If my math is right, there's like $124.50 in the pot once the raise gets to him and it costs him another $30 to see the showdown. I'm not sure where this hand was played nor do I know anything about the opponent, but given the way the hand was played I'm not sure enough that I'm beaten to fold getting that price. The bets show enough weakness that his opponent may put in a small value raise with something worse than AQ. If I were at the table though I'd have a better read on my opponent and I'd be able to better decision on what hands he may raise with. From seeing a single hand history we can't possibly make an accurate determination of a specific player's bluffing frequency in a single specific situation.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Well, since that's what was asked, that's what I gave. Obviously it should be read as coming from someone who wasn't there. I agree that the bets on flop and turn were weak and therefore he might have induced a raise from a weaker hand. So, as I mentioned, he should have bet more on the flop and the turn. Despite the way that he played the hand, however, not knowing anything about the specifics, I still don't see too many people playing this level making a raise on the river with a hand which cannot beat AQ.