Should I have seen the river?

[TommyO]

I need your help!!! For the past month I just can't seem to get ahead. I thought I'd post a hand and take you through my thought process. Hands like this have just been killing me lately.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG+1 posts a blind of $3.
UTG folds, UTG+1 (poster) checks, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

The blinds in this hand are seeing almost every flop even for a raise. Since I didn't think I was going to get anyone to fold I figured I would see the flop before I put more money in. Normally I would raise here but I've been losing a lot of money with AJ lately and I'm starting to wonder if I'm overplaying it.

Flop: (5 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flopped a gut shot but 2 spades are on the board. I figure I should see the turn for one small bet, but then it's raised. That raise just screams flush draw or set to me. Now I figure that my 4 queen outs just turned into 3 queen outs. Should I have folded here?

Turn: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero folds.

I've got to fold here, and it's not even close. Correct?

River: (9.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 folds, BB calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

[chief444]

I raise this pf every time, especially with a poster.

I would consider raising the flop as well. But calling seems fine.

Turn looks like a good fold to me.

[Brash620]

I think you should have folded on the flop. Thats a small pot to stay in with a gun shot.

The turn fold is good.

[TommyO]

I figured my ace outs were good too. I wanted to see the turn to see if an ace or a queen came off. Do you still fold in this case?

[deception5]

Raising pre-flop here may not drive anyone out (although it certainly could fold at least the blinds here) but it's very likely that you have the best hand before the flop. Since you probably have a better than 20% chance of winning the hand, a preflop raise here is making you money even if everyone calls.