A typical blind battle (or: calling is the new raising)

[adanthar]

Level 2 of a 50+5. I have 950, the guy to my left has 1200, pretty much the usual. I get QJ in the SB and open complete; he checks.

Flop is 992, two clubs. I have no clubs but bet 30 anyway as I would on any paired flop and a whole bunch of others. He calls. A Q comes on the turn, I check, he bets 80, I autofold.

Standard? I should probably have raised PF but eh, whatever.

[bigredlemon]

you bet with nothing, but fold when you hit top pair?

something you're not telling us?

[Big Limpin']

Standard? No.
But, i THINK (?) i understand why you did this, and am fully behind you on it. But I personally do not have that kind of discipline.

[partygirluk]

I think his point is: He bet out as a bluff. When he gets called the probability of his opponent holding a 9 goes up sharply. If he bets the Queen, he will not get a better hand to fold, and it is unlikely a worse hand will call. He is out of position. Small pot. Get out.

[adanthar]

I'm not gonna get into the fold until tomorrow morning, but you should be betting this flop with any two cards.

I'll explain why tomorrow if you want but it's basically an easy math problem.

[rjb03]

[ QUOTE ]
Level 2 of a 50+5. I have 950, the guy to my left has 1200, pretty much the usual. I get QJ in the SB and open complete; he checks.

Flop is 992, two clubs. I have no clubs but bet 30 anyway as I would on any paired flop and a whole bunch of others. He calls. A Q comes on the turn, I check, he bets 80, I autofold.

Standard? I should probably have raised PF but eh, whatever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Over the last few months I've implemented a somewhat similar strategy to what the BB did into my SNG strategy on Stars (haven't tried on party...stacks aren't as deep), but I'm usually bluffing by calling (possible?) when I do it. I usually see a lot of sb's who will complete and bet any flop or min raise and bet any flop. If I have a deep enough stack to play a little and my opponent has a decent stack too, I'll occasionally call a small raise with less than decent cards or check if they complete and call the small, predictable flop bet with the expectation they'll check to me on the turn, which they do a high percentage of the time (lower buy-in than you play...), and put out a medium size bet at this point.

I've had pretty good success with this play. I find more people are obligated to call a raise when they bet, and obviously I have to invest more with less information when I raise (turn check), so I like this play when I have position and find the sb predictable enough to make it work.

[Irieguy]

I hope this "easy math problem" enlightens me, because from this angle it just looks like you're paying 60 chips to be the big blind's bitch.

Irieguy

[Avoozl]

"I'm not gonna get into the fold until tomorrow morning, but you should be betting this flop with any two cards." - It is obvious to any good player that a paired rags flop is a bluffer's heaven. No decent player is going to fold a hand better than yours here. By making a weak bet on the flop then checking the turn you are giving your opponent an easy chance to make a bet to take down the pot on the turn. A lot of players would choose not to bet this kind of flop after completing the sb (rather than raising) if they hit a 9 - they would instead opt to slow play the hand, so all you have done by making this play is telegraph your weakness.

Your opponent is not going to have a difficult time making a low risk bet on the turn and taking the pot off you.

I think your play there is mediocre. You should not be completing the sb with QJ in this situation - either raise or fold - why give the opponent a free chance to see the flop with position on you?

[AJo Go All In]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no clubs but bet 30 anyway as I would on any paired flop and a whole bunch of others.

[/ QUOTE ]

you seem to think that the only way to react to this is "call if you make something, fold otherwise." i am sure i am not the only player who routinely calls this flop bet with any two cards looking to take the pot away from players like you who get off on folding top pair good kicker head-up against the blind.

i think you are folding the best hand very often in this spot.

[adanthar]

Well, after sleeping on it I should definitely have raised here PF, rather than probably. Oh well.

The flop bet *is* a math problem, though. The BB pairs the flop a little under 22%. He has a pocket pair (that he didn't raise) or a flush draw often enough to make that a little over 25%. To make my bluff unprofitable, he has to bluff call over 10% (a little more than that because he's likely not betting any street with a 2).

Against someone I have notes on as good, I play this differently. Against a typical 50+5 player I don't have reads on...not so much.

Oh, and I do bet a 9 in this spot.