More bubble play questions

[Strollen]

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

Button (t455)
SB (t3330)
Hero (t405)
UTG (t3810)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t900</font>, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls t105 (All-In).

Flop: (t1455) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t1455) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t1455) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1455
Ok should I just fold with my 93. UTG was a loose chaser at the beginning of the tournament, but he has tightened up, a couple of hands ago my queens lost to his aces.

[bigredlemon]

When you have that much in the pot, you should call with anything. Especially 93. The odds of being dominated are slim to none. Just hope to hit a pair, and he miss the board.

The button is going to survive another orbit. You can't unless you double up. Fold now and you're as good as gone.

[willperkins]

I would have folded the 93 and took whatever came in the SB. I will assume the UTG has something to raise 3 X BB.

Hopefully the next hand is a better hand or the other players have a weaker hand and I might win and get to see a few more hands plus put pressure on the other short stack.

[bigredlemon]

If he folds, then he's going to have to surive the blinds twice. Presuming he's lucky and it's just him vs the other blind, he's looking at 25% of making it through both AT BEST. At the same time, the button must lose BOTH for him to be blinded out on the second orbit.

I'd take my 1/3rd chances here vs. the 11% chance next round.

[willperkins]

You may be right. I don't claim to be a great player. That is why I read this site so I can improve my play.

I was putting UTG on either a big pair (which makes him about a 7 to 1 dog) or two over cards (which makes him about a 2 to 1 dog). Is my math or thinking wrong here?


You are correct though, if he folds and wins in the SB, he would still have to get lucky to make the money.

[Avoozl]

Putting UTG on a big pair here is ridiculous. Sure, he might have a big pair, and would raise if he did have one. However, he will raise here with any ace, any good king, and possibly a good queen. Thus, the frequency of him having two overcards is much greater than him having an overpair. So you will most likely have a 1/3 chance if you call now (If you factor in that he might have one undercard vs the chance of the overpair).

If you wait until the SB to make your move, you are still going to have to survive the NEXT round of blinds even if you win. Wherease if you call and get lucky now, you will have a better chance of slipping into the t3 than the other small stack.

I think your math is fine here, but your thinking is slightly off. Not calling here with the 93 would be a BIG mistake.

[Strollen]

Thanks I figured I didn't have much of a choice.

UTG had KK so I was smoked.

[bigredlemon]

there's some tournaments where you just can't win. All you can do is make the best move and hope it works out.

[Strollen]

Do reinforce Bigred's point, even knowing my opponent had KK. I was better shoving my chips in there.

I had 12.5% chance of beating KK with my 93 x 1455 chips = 182 chips
Next turn with one opponent I had 50/50 shot of winning a 210 max pot. = 105 chips EV.