Win rate, Standard Deviation, and tourney results

Take 2 players: One with a ring game earn rate of 1 big bet(BB) an hour and a standard deviation of 12 BB's an hour. The other earns 3/4 a BB an hour but with a standard deviation of 16 BB's.


Now let's say these players are playing in a limit tourney with about 125 players and the tourney usually last around 3 to 4 hours.


If they both play their standard ring game until there are 20 players left in the tourney, who will end up outperforming on average?


This isn't meant to be a trick question and am hoping some stat pros and tourney theorists could help me out...but I was wondering...in a short duration tourney, you need nice positive swings to be able to reach the money. So I was thinking that in theory a loose but good post flop player could actually outperform the tight player in a tourney since this player would have higher positive swings. The medium average wins that a tight player earns will always be vulnerable to that one hand which could knock them out of a short tourney while very high positive wins can give a player a good shot at making the money.

In issue no. 9 of Intelligent Gambler (http://www.conjelco.com/IG/IG9.pdf) J.P. Massar has an article in which he looks at satellite play vs. ring games.