Tournament Hand

Blinds 400-800. I have 7100 in stack. BB has only 400 left after posting the BB. I am dealt AsKd. There are three large stacks at the table that could call a "normal" raise pretty easily, so raising to 2400 or so is out of the question. Large stack at table has 27k. Two others have over 16k. I figure if I raise at all, I am commited. Calling would be idiocy. There are 6 players at my table, and 11 remaining in the tournament, and it pays top 9. I decide that raising all-in is the best idea considering my stack and those of the other players. If I raise any other amount and get called, I am just about pot-commited and must then decide what to do when the flop is rags. I also figure that a player may see this raise as an attempt at attacking the dead money and call me with a lesser hand like AJ. I may also get called by small pairs, but I figure at this stage I can handle a coin flip type hand with AK.


The large stack calls. Cards are run out. Flop is all diamonds, turn is a diamond, river unimportant. I have Kd. He has AQd. I am busted and he is overwhelming chip leader. I really don't think there is anything to say about this, I just felt like complaining about my crappy luck. I'd have done the same in his position.


For the math/simulation types: How big of a favorite am I pre-flop?

Shaun The Sucka,


I don't think there's anything wrong with your play. Your reasonning makes perfect sence.


I will just add this. There is another valid argument to raising to only 2400-3000 preflop. The reason is so that if you get called, you can still bet the flop and get your opponent to fold. Of course in your case, it would not have changed anything but sometimes they fold, and you gain when they do. Say the guy calls with 88 and the flop comes QJ9, maybe he folds.


You're right that you are pot stuck if you are reraised but you know that, and maybe they don't.


If you had less, like 5-6K then all-in is the only play. But with slightly more it might be an alternative to raise the standard of 2400 or 3000, which is less that half your stack, and bet the rest on the flop, no matter what.


Again like I said, there nothing wrong with your play.


And since you asked, anytime you dominate a player you're around a 2.8:1 favorite. Since he was suited and you had the Kd, you probably were a 2.5:1 favorite (no sims, just off the top of my head).


Nicolas

According to a simulation I ran you would win the hand 70% of the time.

Moving in is absolutely OK here. Alternatively, you might have made it T4000 or T5000 and move in on the flop no matter what (It wouldn't make much of a difference against decent opponents).



> How big of a favorite am I pre-flop?

<PRE>

Hold'em, 2-handed, pot 2, cost 1, preflop, full deck, 1712304 boards

As-Kd: 70.90% 5:2 (EV +0.42) 1175402 wins 77295 splits 459607 losses

Ad-Qd: 29.10% 2:5 (EV -0.42) 459607 wins 77295 splits 1175402 losses

</PRE>

cu



Ignatius

Just to add my 2 cents.


I used to always push in in this type of situation. when a K-J hit a jack on river I bemoaned my bad luck. However, I am now doing more of a large raise and holding a decent amount back to put in on the flop. Then, the K-J has to fold. Or, like the example above, 8-8 may fold when you miss completely. Another top player told me if you realy want to push in, rather than say 50% of you stack, still, keep just a little bit back.. Just a little bitty bet after the flop can sometimes result in a fold.