A thought on blind stealing

[eastbay]

Say you're on the bubble and need to steal to stay alive. It's 200/400 and you've got about 1800 on the SB after posting and pick up something like T8s. Not a terrible hand, but one you don't want called. BB has 2k after posting.

I'm beginning to think that raising to 1000 is usually the right play here. I think many players read this as "please call" and are far less likely to call you with something like Kx or Qx.

Obvious? Wrong?

eastbay

[lorinda]

Obvious? Wrong?

Incredibly level dependent I suspect.

It's wrong in the very low games for sure, I like it in the mid games, and in the high games you might get a stop-go stuffed in your face.
I think that used wisely after carefully assessing the game you are in, it could be a very good play indeed.

Lori

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Obvious? Wrong?

Incredibly level dependent I suspect.

It's wrong in the very low games for sure, I like it in the mid games, and in the high games you might get a stop-go stuffed in your face.
I think that used wisely after carefully assessing the game you are in, it could be a very good play indeed.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

I play in the $55 and $109 party games, and think it may apply in both.

I agree it's probably worthless in lower games.

eastbay

[stripsqueez]

you cant fold after raising that amount - i suppose you might get called and fold to an ugly flop but your basically commited - a reasonable player in the BB knows this but i doubt that a lot of them go on to wonder why you didnt push

when someone does this to me unless i know they are good or i know they routinely push i do what i would of done if they had pushed - so many chooks that its rare that i dont treat such a bet as a push

i have heard the argument that you should raise rather than push in push situations in order to disguise the monster starting hands - i think in the context of 65,000 players, mostly chooks, playing at empire/party poker such tactics are akin to taking a knife to a gun fight

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[lorinda]

I play in the $55 and $109 party games, and think it may apply in both.

It might be worth recording what happens for the next 30 or so times it comes up.

I don't think in those games you're going to really hurt yourself with a smallish sample like that, but it's possible you'll find a gem.

Lori

[lorinda]

Going a little further here.

If you go all in versus a multitabler, then they will make whatever their standard play is, which is likely to be correct.

Doing it your way might make them stop and think a little, which gives them an opportunity to make an error.

I suspect this play is not -EV in your games.

Lori

[Gramps]

Depends. Could mean monster, could mean you'd like to steal the blinds but are afraid of committing all of your chips. Once you do it more than once to the same player/in the same game, any observant player will see that it's probably the latter and that they should lower their playback standards against this raise.

Are you folding if the BB comes over the top of you? Because if I'm the BB and I have 55 or A7s and playback at you knowing that this is a standard play of yours regardless of your hand strength, I'd sure as heck love to pick up 1400 free chips instead of having to showdown a winner for 2400 chips...so...

...don't let it get to the point where your opponents know that raise means "I want chips but don't want to put my stack at risk to get them."

[assron]

imo, if you want to disguise your monster starting hands, why not take a more aggressive route and steal hard with everything. if you cant fold yourself when you get beat, then why kill your (I hate this term) folding equity. if I see someone routinely raising small amounts on steals, trying that fake-me-out min raise of death, I'm going to come over the top as soon as I pick up a hand, stack permitting, to see what their stones are made of. Usually they're not made of much. If I'm going to make a LAG raise, I'm going to sell it hard... that's just me though, I might be an aggressive nutcase.

[lorinda]

I think the point is to commit enough of your chips to make it clear you are not folding (The original example might need to be 1200) but make it look like you didn't go all-in for some other reason.

For the previous poster who mentioned about losing folding equity, the question is can we raise the folding equity in a perverse backwards way against medium-good players.

Lori

[assron]

you definitely raise the folding equity if you mix up your raises. You cant expect to get the fold though if you're consistently raising low... any good player is going to reraise you to see if your hand is any good and can get an easy yes/no answer from you. Worse yet, they can call and see if they hit their marginal starting hand and have good odds to call your impending push. I dont like that happening to me, I'm raising hard.

I do throw in a minraise here or there though if I've been pushing too many hands and want to look like I'm dying for action. You have to have the right table image for it to work though.