#1
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Once in a Lifetime of Video Poker?
While playing Dueces Wild video poker in a casino (not in Nevada) 4 days ago, I tried to double up winning hands and the machine drew Wild2, Wild2, Wild2, Ace, Ace on 5 consecutive attempts. Since 2 is the highest and can't be beaten and ace is 2nd, I lost every single try. If my memory serves me right, the probability of these cards being selected for doubling up on successive tries would be 1/13 * 1/13* 1/13 * 2/13 * 2/13 for .0000107
Was I: 1. Just lucky to see such a rare set of events take place? 2. Do video poker machines not use a 52 card selection when you attempt to double? 3. Can casinos alter machine settings for doubling? |
#2
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Re: Once in a Lifetime of Video Poker?
With the exact same hand on five consecutive attempts, I think you may have run into come kind of machine malfunction.
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#3
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Re: Once in a Lifetime of Video Poker?
I sure hope you told the casino manager about this (after you cashed out, of course).
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#4
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Re: Once in a Lifetime of Video Poker?
I think the odds are much worse than you said there. That seems like the calcuatlion for a single hand (though probably slightly off since once a 2 is gone, the odds decrease to 1/17, then 1/25 for example). You would have to take this number to the 5th power to get the odds of that occuring...I think...
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#5
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Re: Once in a Lifetime of Video Poker?
Where are you getting these numbers to do your calculation from? I assume you mean the single card the machine drew on the first hand was a 2, second hand was a 2, third hand was a 2, etc., and not that the machine drew five of a kind five times in a row. If this indeed is what happened, the probability of the machine drawing ace or higher five hands in a row is (8/52)^5 = .000086 = .0086%, or 1 in 11603.
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#6
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Re: Once in a Lifetime of Video Poker?
Ace or higher as you calculated means you have a small chance of winning. But since the selected card for the 1st 3 tries was the Wild 2 that cannot be beaten, only tied, the first 3 double attempts offered a zero percent chance of a player win. The 4th and 5th draws with Aces offered a win only if a Wild 2 was one or more of the face down cards and I had to be lucky enough to select it from the group. In fact the 5th attempt did not have a card higher or equal to an Ace, so there were 4 of 5 attempts in which the player's odds of a successful double were zero.
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#7
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Just lucky
Something had to come up, whatever. Were you going to be just as pissed if you lost like 9 v 6 then 8 v. Jack, etc. 5 times?
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#8
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Re: Just lucky
[ QUOTE ]
Something had to come up, whatever. Were you going to be just as pissed if you lost like 9 v 6 then 8 v. Jack, etc. 5 times? [/ QUOTE ] He didn't say anything about being pissed, just asking a probability question. |
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