Take on card off?

Very early in a 175-man limit tourney, I've built my stack up to about T2500 as the blinds are 15/30 and the limit is 30/60.


I open-raise for T60 in EP with JhJd. I am cold-called by MP, CO and BU. SB folds and BB calls as well. T315 in the pot.


Flop comes: Kd-9h-8h. BB checks, I check, MP checks, CO bets, BU calls, BB calls. T405 and T30 to me. Do I peel one card off here with pocket Jacks?


lars

Hard to say. You're getting 13.5:1 on the call, but the odds against spiking a J are about 22:1. That means if you really must catch a J to win, AND you will win 100% of the time you catch, you still must win 8-9 small bets on the turn and river combined to make up the deficit.


One key factor here is you have the Jh. If you didn't, then half the time you caught a J the flush would be made at the same time, which would often mean that half the time you catch a J you'd still have to catch your draw (to a full house) to win.


The problem here is how coordinated the board is, and how much the J would increase that coordination. Even though the J only makes a straight for QT and T7, it is frequently going to give somebody a big straight draw even when neither of these made straight hands are in play. Thus, even when you hit your J on the turn, you will still win MUCH less than 100% of the time, because sometimes the river will be the Q, T, or 7 that makes somebody's straight. Plus, any heart on the river that doesn't pair the board will often make somebody's flush.


Overall, you had to win 8-9 more small bets assuming you win 100% of the time you hit your J on the turn. In reality, I suspect you'll win no more than 75% of the time you spike your 2-outer.


If I called here, this would be why. I think that nobody will bet the turn if they don't improve, even somebody with AK or KQ, meaning I'm going to often get to see 2 cards for 1 small bet. Another factor is if there is some chance I'm ahead. If the guy who bet would often bet a flush or straight draw here, and the callers would be more inclined to raise than just call with top pair or better, then I'm getting 13.5:1 where I MAY be in the lead. If that's the case even 5% of the time, then I'm really only paying something like 1/3 of a bet in EV terms to spike my 2-outer J.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)