The EV of STEPs 1-2 and 3-4

[adanthar]

Disclaimer: I have nowhere near enough of these logged to constitute a real sample and a large part of what I do know is anecdotal. That said, let's proceed:

I believe that, for a few winning players who fit certain categories - namely, 20+2/50+5 regulars with smaller but adequate bankrolls who have logged either hundreds or thousands of SNG's and who understand satellite play - STEPs are incredibly +EV, down to 500% or more for STEP 1's.

This is a pretty big assertion, but let me explain:

-STEP's 1 and 2 are incredibly fishy. 'Incredibly' doesn't even do them justice, in fact; the play of a STEP 1 is roughly equivalent to a 5+1 or 10+1 SNG but with the added bonus that none of the players understand satellite structure. Big stacks will routinely call all ins by medium stacks on the bubble, small stacks will fold their way into 7'th in a STEP 2 and then be happy to collect their $18 profit, etc. Given my *very* limited sample size coupled with the people who have won their way to STEP 5 (let's not talk about cashing yet) and table chatter in those STEP's I have played, I think that for one of those players, a long term advancement rate of 40-50% from STEP 1 to 2 is not absolutely out of the question.

-The sole difference between STEP 1 and 2 is that 2 occasionally gets washouts from 3 and 4, along with people whose time is worth too much to play the 1's and who buy into the 2's directly. However, the vast majority of the players in any given 2 are simply fish that got lucky in 1 (as most winners in STEP 1 aren't necessarily *good*.) In addition, it pays more spots; even though the bubble is still at 5-6 players, the play is still loose with 7-8 left and this works to your advantage as a short stack (eg, even if advancing to 3 looks unlikely you can still fold into repeating the 2.) I believe the long term advancement rate from the 2's to the 3's are almost as good as from 1 to 2, for a total of 3-5 1's to enter a STEP 3. This is paying $40 to enter a $215 tournament.

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-STEP 3's and 4's are a different animal; this is where your knowledge of satellite play is greatly tested. In addition, STEP 4, which is hugely +EV for a top pro compared to 5, is where many of the STEP 5 regulars buy in. But, again, because of the sheer amount of places that 'pay out' entries, the advancement rate is *huge*. Even with an advantage over the field of only 5% in Step 3 and -5% (not giving up too much ground*) in Step 4, the advancement rates are going to be 40% apiece. [I've slightly increased the raw number for both since the 'go back to Step X' entries do count for something.]

*this is more likely than you'd think since any advantage a player like Gigabet has with his aggressiveness in a Step 5 setting is completely nullified by his 100% fold rate once he gets chips in a Step 4.

Since I previously used a figure of 3-5 STEP 1's per STEP 3 ticket and it would seem that even a break even STEP 3 player would get to STEP 5 16% of the time (1 in 6-7), our hypothetical player would go from the bottom to the top once for every 18-35 tries. In other words, if you play a lot of these you are going to be paying ~$250 to enter a tournament with a $1065 buyin.

If you're ever so slightly better and actually have a decent edge in STEP 3/so much as break even in STEP 4, your edge grows exponentially higher. I think some of the regulars on this board can definitely top a 500% return by a substantial amount.

Of course, the problem is that to *get* paid, you must get lucky in a 5...in which, at best, you're giving up a fair amount of ground.

Does this overcome a 500% return? I don't think it does.

Thoughts?

[ilya]

I think you estimate for long-term advancement rate from Step 1 to Step 2 is too optimistic. I think something like 40% is probably the uppermost limit.

[adanthar]

Hmm...

The top 10+1 SNG players at Party (or a 215 player that slums down there) can probably hit something like 45% ITM/40% ROI.

Taking those numbers as a baseline, I believe the sat structure rewards skill more than a straight out SNG does, but I'm not sure how much of a boost that gives and the STEP 1 obviously plays fewer spots. Still, the bubble play is just so bad...

I don't know, but even if the number's 40% for both 1 and 2, the end result is still over 200%.

[Myst]

I believe the STEPS tournament are +EV for the excellent 2+2 player who doesnt have an adequate bankroll to directly buyin to either Step 4 or 5.

Adanthar is right on. The Step 1 and Step 2 tournaments are full of weak fish. Here are my personal results so far: (and yes, I understand they are a small sample and that they arent statistically significant).

Total Invested: $162
Step 1 Tournaments Bought in: 14
Step 1 Tournaments Advanced: 6
Step 2 Tournament Freerolls: 6
Step 2 Tournament Advanced: 2

From those 2 freerolls, I have advanced to Step 5 with 1 and Step 4 with another. Basically, Ive accumulated a $1600 package with only $162.

I believe a 40~45% ITM is sustainable in both Step 1 and Step 2. The difference between STEPS and an regular SNG is the length of the tournament and slower blind structure - a STEPS tourny lasts about 1 hour 30 minutes with blinds increasing every 10 min (as opposed to every 10 hands) and more blind levels to boot.

So my estimates?

Assume you 4-table 24 Step 1 Tournaments (12 hours)
You will probably accumulate:
10-12 Step 2 Freerolls
(Assume 40-50% success rate from Step 1 to Step 2)
5-6 Step 3 Freerolls
(Assume 40-50% success rate from Step 2 to Step 3)
2-3 Step 5 Freerolls
(Assume 40-50% success rate from Step 3 to Step 5)


Now assume you are as good as the average player in a Step 5. You should make it ITM 20% of the time. Following my estimates, that means you should have a cash approximately every 40 Step 1 tournaments.

Cost of 40 Step 1 Tournys: ($12 x 40) = $480
Assume average distrubition (1/4 you make ITM, you get 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)
($9000 x .25)+($5000 x .25)+($3600 x .25)+($2400 x .25)
$2250 + $1250 + $900 + $600 = $5000
ROI = $5000 - $480 / $480 = 941%

Lets make the assumption that every time you make ITM, you always get 4th place! Your ROI is still huge!
ROI= $2400-$480 / $480 = 400%

The key to success in these tournaments is thinking long term. YOU WILL NOT CASH EVERYTIME YOU MAKE IT TO STEP 5. With long term variance, it might take a long term before you make an ITM. But when you do, all your work will be worth it!

View it as akin to diversifying a portfolio. Im going to devote half my time playing SNGs, and the other half playing STEPS, and have seperate bankrolls for both. That way, if I go through a long dry spell in STEPS, I will always have my steady SNG profits to rely on.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]

Assume you 4-table 24 Step 1 Tournaments (12 hours)
You will probably accumulate:
10-12 Step 2 Freerolls
(Assume 40-50% success rate from Step 1 to Step 2)
5-6 Step 3 Freerolls
(Assume 40-50% success rate from Step 2 to Step 3)
2-3 Step 5 Freerolls
(Assume 40-50% success rate from Step 3 to Step 5)

[/ QUOTE ]

I still think the 1-->2 and 2-->3 ITM estimates should top out at around 40%, but ok.
But 40% success rate going from 3-->5?! More like 0.16 or so...

[FishBurger]

One of the problems with starting at the first step is the length of time it will take you to reach Step 5. Even if you are correct that this is +EV for certain lower-limit players, you still might have to play 20 or more Step 5s to place.

So, even if your assumptions are correct, with just normal variance, your typical lower limit player might deplete their bankroll before they ever place in the Step 5s. That doesn't mean that starting from Step 1 wouldn't necessarilly be profitable for that player in the long run, it just means that the player might not have the bankroll to sustain the normal swings one would expect to see in a multi-table tourney.

[ZeeJustin]

Your return rates are overly optimistic. You neglect to mention variance which will be HUGE when you play in step 1. You also neglect the time factor. For a skilled player, entering step 1, and playing through, I wouldn't be surprised if this took over 5 hours on average.

Stick to your cash-only sngs, and avoid the step tourneys.

You also completely neglected step 5. There's some very tough competition in that step.

[eastbay]

I don't think it's useful to talk about $EV of steps 1-4 independently of step 5. Take the limiting case of step 5 being impossible. Then the $EV of a step 1 entry is zero, no matter how easy those games are.

I personally think these things are a terrible proposition for most players. They're a $1k 2-table SnG for the top few players - with the bonus that some midlimit players get thrust into the game from lower steps, and mostly it's really just a rake churning machine for PP for those playing below.

eastbay

[Irieguy]

I did the exact same analysis you did a few days ago with a friend and came up with numbers in the same neighborhood that you did.

We concluded that we could expect a 200%-300% ROI on our step 1 buy-ins to the level 5 entry.

The problem, as ZeeJustin says, is step 5. I've played one so far and it was the single most competitive poker tournament I have ever played in... including 1-table satellites for WSOP events. I waited for a few hours and selected a step 5 with only 5 players that looked dangerous: Spyhard, Missyrules, N3V3RBluff, Comeonphish, and Sevenfigures. I got lucky and ended up with only Sevenfigures at my table. I got lucky again and watched him bust out in 19th. I got lucky yet again and was the best remaining player at the table and had little trouble making it to the final 10. Then it was amazingly tough. I got lucky still one more time and doubled up with pocket Kings early to get a nice stack down to 9. I nursed it for almost an hour down to 5 players with a small chip lead. The other remaining players were: comeonphish, spyhard, missyrules, and N3V3RBluff.... unlucky. They outplayed me and I got 5th for zero dollars.

Right now I figure that I'm negative EV in step 5, but the gigantic overlay in the first 4 steps that will allow me to play level 5 for $400-500 per, on average, still makes it a worthwhile venture. I disagree with Zee about the time making it not worthwhile. Running the numbers with my own estimates, it's still at least as good as 4-tabling the $55's in terms of hourly rate. But hourly rate is meaningless because the variance is out of this world when you consider the step 5 situation... so you just decide to play because it's +EV and hope you have a favorable variance spike over the short run (you can't play hundreds of step 5's without buying into at least step 4's regularly).

One final note: the step 5's will get easier as more $10 players work their way up and some of the experts decide they can't fade the variance. But the step 3's and 4's are going to get a lot tougher when the fish wise up even a little bit. So, I would recommend playing through level 3 as quickly as possible as many times as possible and stock-piling your level 4 and 5 chances until the level 5's soften up.

Just my $0.02

Irieguy

[Myst]

Ok, maybe a 40% success rate could be pushing it from Step 3 to Step 5. But you gotta remember, the top 6 (in Step 3) and the top 8 (in Step 4) advance to the next level. In addition to that, the two finishers who finish either 7th or 8th (in Step 3) or 9th + 10th (in Step 4) get their buyin back. Often times by playing tight, you'll find yourself at the final table. So I dont think a success rate of 25-30% is beyound the realm of possibility to go to Step 5 from Step 3.

With that said, I think only the BEST low limit SNG players should even consider playing in STEPs. Playing Step 5 was the TOUGHEST poker I ever had to play in my life, and have ever personally seen. With such small stacks and ever-increasing blinds, all it takes is one mistake to get knocked out.

But its definitely not impossible Eastbay. Game selection is important when playing Step 5. Sure, I still had Gigabet and hitngo, but I wasnt playing in a full tank of sharks.

For what its worth, I ended up placing 3rd and 5th in my two forays at the STEP 5. So for $162 invested, I got $3600 Do I expect it to be this easy all the time? Of course not. But these results make me optimistic for future forays in the STEPs system.

Im not ready to total abandon my "steady" income in the $30+3 SNGs. I think the best plan is to have two different bankrolls, one for SNG play and one for STEPS play. If you diversify your portfolio this way, you can play with the inherent variance in the Step 5s without destroying your entire bankroll.

At least thats what I am going to do for the next 3 months. Only time will tell whether this is a good move or not.