QQ against a "very selective" raiser

[cold_cash]

Party 2/4 - 10 handed

I'm UTG and raise w/ QQ.

It gets folded over to the button, who 3-bets. I've got a couple hundred hands with this guy, and he's too loose before the flop (30%ish), but very, very selective with his raises (3%ish).

Blinds fold, so we're heads up.

I'm guessing this raise is one of two hands, and I'm not thrilled about either one of them, so I call.

The flop comes down a 7 high rainbow. I check and the button instantly bets. I make up my mind I'm going to check and call the flop and turn, and bet the river unless an Ace or King comes off.

What do you think?

[phy1234]

if an ace or king does come off are you check folding the turn/river?

[cold_cash]

I don't think he would raise before the flop, (and especially 3-bet), with a hand that didn't include at least one Ace or King.

So yeah, I could check and fold if one came off and not lose any sleep over it.

[phy1234]

If you don't think he will be raising with AQ or AJs then I think your line is fine. I would be inclined to lead out on the turn if an A/K does not show. That is just me though

[The Dude]

On a flop with no runner runner draws, I'm not opposed to check-folding against this kind of opponent. If you had fewer hands against him, you couldn't do it, and if you had more you could feel more confident doing it. Nonetheless, folding is fine if in 250 hands he's raised preflop 7 times. He's just not going to be 3-betting with very much.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
On a flop with no runner runner draws, I'm not opposed to check-folding against this kind of opponent. If you had fewer hands against him, you couldn't do it, and if you had more you could feel more confident doing it. Nonetheless, folding is fine if in 250 hands he's raised preflop 7 times. He's just not going to be 3-betting with very much.

[/ QUOTE ]

i had a 150 hand session recently where i played exactly 4 hands and limped each time.

i don't know the math behind it, but how many hands does it take to get an accurate range of an opponent's vpip/pfr ?

[The Dude]

A lot more than 250.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
A lot more than 250.

[/ QUOTE ]

that said don't you think its a bit presumptious to just checkfold the flop?

[The Dude]

perhaps. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Fat Nicky]

I'm less inclined to slow down this fast. I'd check-call the flop, and check-raise the turn if and A or K doesn't fall. I think you're becoming too passive with this hand too early, even with the stats you have on him, as JJ is a good possibility as one of his holdings.

Another option would be to cap pre-flop and lead the flop, If you get raised, call down.