AA in the BB.

[Jason Strasser]

So after realizing that my ROI at certain times during off-peak hours was hardly positive (playing against gigabet, spyhard_spb, gamboholic and company is bad!) I decided to play the 100s when the 200s look bad. They play a lot differently.

So anyway, this is level 1 assume all stacks around 1k. I get AA in the BB. 6 people limp. Yes, six. I make it 125. I get four callers. Yes, four.

Flop comes JJ9, 2 diamonds.

I check, with the intention of folding or check raising any bet (depending on if I believed the person or not), or folding or maybe calling a bet if there was a bet and a call with the option of leading a non-diamond turn (i did not have Ad).

Sound ok?
-Jason

[SuitedSixes]

I see this flop and throw up all over myself.

[Irieguy]

This isn't really a bad flop for the way this hand developed. With 4 callers, I'd say it's safe to say that you're up against at least 2 underpairs, if not 3. That would be the most common starting hand to limp-call with, followed by a suited connector. There are 8 cards in your opponents' hands, and 39 in the deck... so you are still a favorite to not be facing trip jacks. 9's full is certainly a possibility with this action, but mathematically not very likely.

The most likely scenario is that you are way ahead and there's somebody willing to call a huge bet with pocket 10's, 8's, 7's,etc. or K-10d. There's a reasonable chance somebody would have (and call with) worse diamonds than that... a lot worse.

If you push, you get called almost all the time and you are well ahead almost all of the time. A check-raise isn't bad, but most hands that would stab at that board would be at least willing to try and snap a suspected AK bluff... so you just risk a checked flop. If the flop is checked around, you are in trouble. The next card is going to either fill a straight, the flush, or put another undercard out that could have made a set for someone. It's also less likely somebody will call on the turn, since your flop-check followed by a push will only entice those that have you soundly beaten.

In fact, if I were to end up in a big multi-way pot with aces; the flop I would most like to see (besides an ace, of course) would be a paired board. I could do without the flush draw... but at least you have enough chips to make a call incorrect.

Irieguy

[SuitedSixes]

I agree, I think that if it's the diamonds you're worried about, you can't risk a free card. Harrington talks about a "probe bet" (I think that's what he calls it) to see where you stand. It's gotta be enough to make calling incorrect for a flush draw, doesn't it?

I don't know what to do if you get called, though. Irie thinks a smaller PP will call, which means you almost have to push since there would be no way to differentiate between a smaller PP and a 3rd Jack? Do you just have to push here, making the diamond draw incorrect, and hoping that if you are against trip J's that you still have two outs?

[lorinda]

I think it's okay as long as you are comfortable with who is doing what.

With that kind of flop, you'll probably find someone who tries to steal it with flush/straight/9/nothing and they can spend their chips finding out who, if anyone, has the jack for you.

I don't see you gain by doing anything else here.

Lori

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
I check, with the intention of folding or check raising any bet (depending on if I believed the person or not), or folding or maybe calling a bet if there was a bet and a call with the option of leading a non-diamond turn

[/ QUOTE ]

lots of ifs and ors - like you i think all plans are crappy

perhaps its hindsight but i like raising more pre-flop - theres T105 on the table and some chook(s) will probably even call a push - you would think that T350 might of made this hand a lot less risky

i dont think there is much chance of picking whether or not your behind so i dont like your plan - the same guys who casually called T125 pre-flop with garbage will play in an equally casual, strange, and mysterious way with their chips post flop - you either check/fold or commit - i like commit - that being the case i like betting out a small chunk now and pushing the rest on the turn if not raised

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[housenuts]

should you not make a bigger PF bet? as for the flop i'm at a serious loss of what to do. that's probably why i'm stuck at the 20's.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
the same guys who casually called T125 pre-flop with garbage will play in an equally casual, strange, and mysterious way with their chips post flop

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

Yeah, I think my biggest mental mistake is assuming my opponents play rationally. Often they don't.

eastbay

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't really a bad flop for the way this hand developed. With 4 callers, I'd say it's safe to say that you're up against at least 2 underpairs, if not 3. That would be the most common starting hand to limp-call with, followed by a suited connector. There are 8 cards in your opponents' hands, and 39 in the deck... so you are still a favorite to not be facing trip jacks. 9's full is certainly a possibility with this action, but mathematically not very likely.

The most likely scenario is that you are way ahead and there's somebody willing to call a huge bet with pocket 10's, 8's, 7's,etc. or K-10d. There's a reasonable chance somebody would have (and call with) worse diamonds than that... a lot worse.

If you push, you get called almost all the time and you are well ahead almost all of the time. A check-raise isn't bad, but most hands that would stab at that board would be at least willing to try and snap a suspected AK bluff... so you just risk a checked flop. If the flop is checked around, you are in trouble. The next card is going to either fill a straight, the flush, or put another undercard out that could have made a set for someone. It's also less likely somebody will call on the turn, since your flop-check followed by a push will only entice those that have you soundly beaten.

In fact, if I were to end up in a big multi-way pot with aces; the flop I would most like to see (besides an ace, of course) would be a paired board. I could do without the flush draw... but at least you have enough chips to make a call incorrect.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with all of that except the minor claim that I want to see an ace. I'm of the opinion that I definitely don't want to see an ace on the flop. That leaves one ace out, and the vast majority of players shut down with an ace on board when they hold underpairs.

eastbay

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]

With that kind of flop, you'll probably find someone who tries to steal it with flush/straight/9/nothing and they can spend their chips finding out who, if anyone, has the jack for you.


[/ QUOTE ]

Great post.