Odds please?

[reddawg1221]

Much like Daliman and others I have been having a bad weekend. I have lost only a few buy-ins but I can do no better than break even. Anyway, I have a question about the chances of someone making a set. It seems that, obviously, I keep losing with the second best hand--that is not the point of this post. For example, I have ak in LP, full table, and no limpers. I raise a standard 3x BB and get called by only the SB and BB. Flop As, 8h, 7h. Checked to me. I bet 3/4 pot. SB min-raises. I think, and then reraise thinking this villian might be check raising a draw. Villian calls, turn comes off a rag. Villian checks, I push. Well I got outplayed. He had a set of 7's. My question is how often am I up against a set? If some math wiz could enlighten me I would appreciate it. Thanks.

PS--I have run into this situation so many times this weekend I thought that I would ask.

[Myst]

He makes a set about 12 percent of the time, so 7.5-1.

You will flop either an ace or king 32 percent of the time.

So the times he'll hit your set the same time youll hit one of your two cards is about 4 percent.

Dont feel so bad. I would have pushed on the flop.

[Allinlife]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop As, 8h, 7h. Checked to me. I bet 3/4 pot. SB min-raises. I think, and then reraise thinking this villian might be check raising a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think if he was gonna check raise you on a draw out of position, he would have gone allin. this play only works when he has position on you and get to check the turn.

I would have done the same by the way.

[reddawg1221]

Thanks for the reply. Oddly enough it just happened again, this time with a, 10 vs 33, but fewer people at the table. Luckly he didn't have that many chips and I am still in it.

[pshreck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Flop As, 8h, 7h. Checked to me. I bet 3/4 pot. SB min-raises. I think, and then reraise thinking this villian might be check raising a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think if he was gonna check raise you on a draw out of position, he would have gone allin. this play only works when he has position on you and get to check the turn.

I would have done the same by the way.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is it possible to checkraise from the other position exactly?

[kalooki45]

useless post here--
but I get nervous when I have a strong Ace, make a big raise, and get called.
Likeliest callers--ANY pocket pair, Ax suited, strong Kings, and jerks :P
If the flop comes A-x-x rainbow, and I make a big bet and get a reraise, I tend to put the raiser on Ax hitting 2 pair--my worst nightmare. If there's a flush draw on the board, I may have to get super aggressive. I figure the chance of him hitting 2 pair on x-x is much less after the raise, but beware the people who will call you holding any Ace...especially if it's suited. I play low limits, can you tell?? lol
I tend to slow down a bit in this situation, but will usually see it through if poss--however at that point I don't really like my chances in an all-in.
A check-raise in my level generally means he's got a hand of some kind...the bluffers and bullies will just go all-in.

[ddubois]

An individual person will be dealt a pocket pair about one in 13 times, and a person holding a pair will flop a set about one in 8 times.

[Daliman]

ALWAYS fear the miniraise flop-on, ESPECIALLY if they are Out of position.