NFL Season Futures

Skalansky: Need your help in applying your theory on betting the under for the NFL season W/L.


I wanted to watch it for the year to see how it would play out and at the current odds each team is at 8.04 wins (the open was at 8.11). I'm thinking that your theory applied to even money bets??


Some team's W/L line has move and others the money line has moved at the current lines there are 13 lines favoring the under 15 favoring the over and 3 even money. If we bet the under there would be 18 even money bets and 13 under favs.


Am I missing something here? As you know there are two ways to get more money on the other side of the bet, move the line or move the odds.--Blink


PS--Sorry for posting this yesterday on the Poker Forum please excuse the oversight.

I doubt David even reads here, when was the last time he posted in here? In any event there is almost always going to be a bias to the over as people are naturally going to gravitate towards betting teams they like and have a positive view of their chances. The fact its so close to 8 is actually a bit surprising. At 8.04 wins there can't really be any value in betting the whole board as he mentioned in his book. All things being equal, the best generic strategy is tend to bet the under for teams over 8 and over for teams under 8. All falls under the theory that its hard to get everything right on the high end and on the low end that improvement from a bad season isn't as difficult as people think since this is a professional sport and bad players can easily be replaced.