A Play with JJ.

[nepenthe]

I was in the SB with JJ. A rather aggressive player raises UTG. There was one cold-call to me, and I called. BB called.

Flop was T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Checked to PFR who bet. Folded back to me, and I checkraised. BB called two cold. PFR 3-bet. We both called.

Turn was an offsuit A. I decided to bet. BB called. PFR now hesitated and just called.

River was an offsuit low brick. I decided I have no chance of winning this pot by checking. I bet out hoping BB will call. BB indeed did call. PFR hesitated some more, and finally folded. My JJ is good against BB's T6 suited.

[chesspain]

Your turn and river play (especially with no read on the BB) seems like chip-spewing.

[CinnamonWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Your turn and river play (especially with no read on the BB) seems like chip-spewing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. He's ahead on the flop in all likelihood, and has no reason to think they're chasing an ace. Might as well bet the probable best hand.

[Richard Berg]

[ QUOTE ]

I disagree. He's ahead on the flop in all likelihood, and has no reason to think they're chasing an ace. Might as well bet the probable best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like his line, but not because nepenthe's likely to be ahead on a turned Ace. What is PFR 3-betting the flop with? If two pair or better then he's obviously still ahead; that leaves AT, a paired A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x, Axs, or a big suited King as reasonable holdings. I wouldn't count on the latter being the case too often.

[CinnamonWind]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I disagree. He's ahead on the flop in all likelihood, and has no reason to think they're chasing an ace. Might as well bet the probable best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like his line, but not because nepenthe's likely to be ahead on a turned Ace. What is PFR 3-betting the flop with? If two pair or better then he's obviously still ahead; that leaves AT, a paired A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x, Axs, or a big suited King as reasonable holdings. I wouldn't count on the latter being the case too often.

[/ QUOTE ]

The 3-bet on the flop says to me the PFR is not just chasing an ace, but has a made hand. I'd put him on a 88 or 99. I love the turn bet, as it makes the PFR think, and ultimately fold. That might have been a fold our hero needed!

[Richard Berg]

The hands I listed are all made hands or huge draws or both. Very very few people at Party 3/6 will 3-bet PPs worse than middle pair here (fewer than would KQs, methinks, and certainly fewer than would AT/A9/A2/A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/QQ/JJ/T9s/etc). Frankly, if we're going to talk ranges of possible PPs given the preflop action, I'd fear a set more than I'd expect something I beat.

These are all secondary things, though. If I were Hero, the relevant decision would be whether he has aces up or just top pair. Pushing someone off a random ace might be a coup; pushing someone off top two might be more like suicide.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your turn and river play (especially with no read on the BB) seems like chip-spewing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. He's ahead on the flop in all likelihood, and has no reason to think they're chasing an ace. Might as well bet the probable best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero said that UTG was "rather aggressive," not maniacal. Consequently, once the ace turns Hero almost certainly does not have the best hand, unless you think UTG was spazzing with a hand like 88/KQ.

On the turn, there appears to be approx. eight BB in the pot (minus potential rake). For Hero to take down this pot by sheer aggression, he's going to be risking 2BB to win approx. 11BB (assuming on average that BB puts in one more call). I find if difficult to believe that at least 18% of the time Hero will win this pot, which will necessitate his remaining ahead of BB, who may have up to five outs to improve, and convincing the PF raiser to fold. A pretty nifty parlay indeed, and seemingly much less likely than the 11:2 odds the pot is offering.

[sthief09]

you got lucky. misplayed on every street

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
The 3-bet on the flop says to me the PFR is not just chasing an ace, but has a made hand. I'd put him on a 88 or 99. I love the turn bet, as it makes the PFR think, and ultimately fold. That might have been a fold our hero needed!

[/ QUOTE ]

how often to people fold at low limits? we don't win because we make our opponents fold the best hand. we win because they call down with the 2nd best hand. with no reads his play is terrible

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
you got lucky. misplayed on every street

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't like his flop checkraise? Or you think he should've folded to the reraise? Or you didn't want to say "misplayed on nearly every street?" [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]