TT monoflop decision with 3rd nut flush draw.

bisonbison · #1 12-09-2004, 05:22 PM

Me at a new table.

MP3 is known and decent.
UTG is known and loose-passive.
MP2 is unknown.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $3. Hero posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, MP3 (poster) calls, Hero (poster) 3-bets, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (19.33 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, Button folds, UTG calls, MP1 folds, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, Hero calls...

anyone 3-bet this?

Rubeskies · #2 12-09-2004, 05:32 PM

In the hopes of getting a free card on the turn?

MoreWineII · #3 12-09-2004, 05:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
anyone 3-bet this?

[/ QUOTE ]

What does a 3-bet accomplish?

runa · #4 12-09-2004, 06:51 PM

You have position and the pot is big. A free card play is possible and you want to do anything you can to win this pot, why not?

helpmeout · #5 12-09-2004, 07:02 PM

The only thing you can do to win this pot is hope a diamond comes and that a K and J arent out there. No big diamond is folding.

I dont think a pair of Aces is checkraising this big field on that board so I wouldn't 3bet.

Freakin · #6 12-09-2004, 07:10 PM

If you had waited till the BB to come around, then the other players woudl fear you for playing serious poker and would "respect your raises."

I guess a 3-bet makes sense because it somewhat protects your hand against UTG and makes the free card possible. Though given your read and the PF action, UTG is unlikely to fold. What kinds of hands do you think MP2 is raising PF and flop? Something like KQo or KJo, with the K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?

CinnamonWind · #7 12-09-2004, 07:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you had waited till the BB to come around, then the other players woudl fear you for playing serious poker and would "respect your raises."

I guess a 3-bet makes sense because it somewhat protects your hand against UTG and makes the free card possible. Though given your read and the PF action, UTG is unlikely to fold. What kinds of hands do you think MP2 is raising PF and flop? Something like KQo or KJo, with the K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a "free" card when you have to put in a BB to get it, particularly when you might get reraised and bet into on the turn. Call and hope for a big diamond. Fold if not.

uw_madtown · #8 12-09-2004, 07:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you had waited till the BB to come around, then the other players woudl fear you for playing serious poker and would "respect your raises."

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think Party 3/6 players are actually putting a read on someone for posting in the CUTOFF versus waiting for the BB, then you're giving Party 3/6 players too much credit.

This would maybe be applicable in a live game, but live players disregard reads most of the time anyway (they'll still give a serious player action when they know they're beat).

As for bison's original post, I 3-bet. If capped, I call and fold to a non-diamond turn card. But I have no idea what to do with a diamond on the turn -- and if my 3-bet is called (instead of getting capped), I'm even more lost. For me, the 3-bet is to let me know whether I'm up against a flopped flush and/or to get a free card.

Rubeskies · #9 12-09-2004, 07:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's not a "free" card when you have to put in a BB to get it, particularly when you might get reraised and bet into on the turn. Call and hope for a big diamond. Fold if not.

[/ QUOTE ]

The free card play still saves you one small bet over calling the flop and calling the turn. It will cost you 1 big bet on the flop here and 0 on the turn to see the river. Just calling on both streets will cost you 1 small bet on the flop and 1 big bet on the turn for a total cost of 1.5 big bets. 1.5 > 1
Paying 1 bb to see a free turn card is precisely the definition of the free card play.

Your point about possibly getting reraised is a good one. Somebody might also bet into you if a diamond doesn't come on the turn, further hurting the profitability of the free card play.

runa · #10 12-09-2004, 07:49 PM

I put UTG on a draw, and most likely a lone diamond. Since there are only 2 bigger diamonds I think there's a good chance if the flush hits you're already ahead of UTG.

MP2 is more worrisome since there's a good chance he's ahead currently. Since MP2 is unknown a check-raise could be a draw to a higher diamond or a pair trying to thin the field of lone diamonds.

Worse case is AKo with a diamond, but note that if MP2 has paired up there's only a 1/4 chance his other card is a diamond. I think if this were true your flush will probably be good if it hits, and getting a free card to either complete the flush or spike the T, which I am assuming has a decent chance of winning since opponent would have to hold exactly KJ to make these outs dirty.

If your opponent has a high PP, JJ-AA I would like to assume they would have capped the flop, but this is hard to know since this player is unknown. If they hold JJ or KK there's a 50% chance they hold the diamond. If they hold AA or QQ you're in a little more of a pickle but your flush outs are probably good so long as the board doesnt pair up. For 1/2 of these (KK, JJ) your flush outs win half the time and your T outs are good which is about 6.5 outs or so and for the other half (AA, QQ) your flush outs are good which gives you 9. For both of these cases you still want free cards, a flop cap should alert you to the nature of what you might be against, and you have odds to continue.

If you are up against a strong drawing hand like KJo with a lone diamond, you are already ahead. 3-bet.

If you're up against KJs, KTs or something like that and your opponent just flopped the nut flush then I'm sorry. May the poker gods save you with a miracle full house or runner runner 4 of a kind...

So if you are behind AA-JJ (not that likely without PF cap):
(6 combos total) 33% AA-QQ you have flush outs [9]
(12 combos) 67% KK-JJ 50% the time you have flush outs and set outs [11]

If you are behind 2 high cards:
25% AK, etc for pair plus diamond you have only set outs [2]
75% AK, etc for pair with no diamond you have flush outs and set outs [11]

If you are ahead of KJ (you are ahead so 3-bet):
75% KJ no diamond
25% KJ w/diamond

I think the chances he has a high diamond are less than you think and there's a good chance your flush draw is very live and a small chance you're already ahead.

Nonetheless, I think a 3-bet builds up the pot for a likely very live draw with the remote possiblity you are already ahead or get a .5BB discount on a turn card, and your opponent's reaction should define his hand more clearly.