Big Laydown

sthief09 · #1 12-09-2004, 01:42 PM

MP3 is 28/11 preflop and pretty aggressive but not overaggressive. The SB seems to be overaggressive.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
5 folds, MP3 raises, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, SB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

I should've called the flop bet to draw, but aside from that, how convinced are we that I'm beat?

Etric · #2 12-09-2004, 01:48 PM

Looks like MP3 has a flush draw + overcards like KQs or AQs... So I don't think you're beat.

Festus22 · #3 12-09-2004, 01:50 PM

If I were MP3, I'd raise A-K especially if one or both were a heart like every time.

I kind of stunned by this one actually.

3-bet, call a cap and fold the turn unimproved.
Call, lead the turn if unimproved and fold to a raise.
Call down.

I'd say take your choice but folding to the flop raise doesn't seem prudent.

sthief09 · #4 12-09-2004, 01:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like MP3 has a flush draw + overcards like KQs or AQs... So I don't think you're beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is no more likely to have one of these hands than AA-QQ or TT-99. I think he's less likely actually, since he pretty much has to know that I have a big pair here. besides, AKs or KQs are actually favored over me, so when I'm ahead I'm actually behind.

J.R. · #5 12-09-2004, 01:52 PM

how convinced are we that I'm beat?

Not very. 11% pfr is a pretty wide range, so I'm not folding an overpair in an almost 8 BB pot based on the info you have provided after just a flop raise from an open-raiser in position.

Danenania · #6 12-09-2004, 01:53 PM

Pretty convinced besides the slight possibility of some suited big cards in hearts and even then you're still a dog. Not sure how many of those hands he would raise/call cap with. You gotta call the flop but I think a turn fold is fine if you don't improve. The only complication is that is that if it's possible for him to have AKh, AQh, or KQh the math could change a lot with a friendly turn card and maybe sway you toward a call down. I'm in no state to do this math right now but if you have free time maybe you can give it a shot.

Danenania · #7 12-09-2004, 01:55 PM

All this assumes that your read is solid as in >200 hands in PT. I'm also taking "not aggressive postflop" pretty literally as in he wouldn't raise overcards without an accompanying flush draw. If these conditions aren't met I'd go more with JR.

sfer · #8 12-09-2004, 01:57 PM

I'm not folding. I'm checkraising a turn blank.

Danenania · #9 12-09-2004, 01:58 PM

"AKs or KQs are actually favored over me, so when I'm ahead I'm actually behind."

Right but if he could have all these hands (AQs too) that could change your equity a whole lot. It's pretty clear that you are usually behind here, but you don't need to be ahead that often overall to call down. Seeing a turn could also disrupt things a lot.

J.R. · #10 12-09-2004, 01:58 PM

I think a guy who raises 11% (assuming this is correct) of his hands preflop is opening in MP3 with a lot more hands than 99+, AK, AQ, and KQ. I know we have to consider his actions in light of your cap and his flop raise, but this is more a blind steal spot where aggression is of less significance than otherwise and you indicated he was aggressive to begin with. And you are getting 2.5 - 9.5 to call down, or almost 4-1, and you cna get away from things if a bad card falls.

While image may be overemphasized, the whole cap and fold for one more on this flop will and should raise some eyebrows on this flop. What do they put you on when you fold, and won't "they" takes shots at you for it?