Cold call 2 on the flop, but refuse to cold call 2 more

Spicymoose · #1 12-08-2004, 07:38 PM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP1 folds, Hero raises, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero caps, CO calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG raises, Hero calls, CO calls, BB 3-bets, UTG caps, Hero folds, CO calls, BB calls.

I figure the first cold call is giving me enough odds to draw. Sure I could be drastically behind to AA, KK, trips, or some sort of 2 pair, but I figure often enough people will be betting and raising top pair, a smaller overpair, or some sort of draw.

Once it comes back to me for 2 more, I figure it is far more likely I am behind to one of the above mentioned hands, and figure I am likely drawing very thin to dead.

Turn: (15.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG raises, CO folds, BB calls.

River: (19.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB

Comments?

Thanks,
Spicymoose

Snoogins47 · #2 12-08-2004, 07:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP1 folds, Hero raises, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero caps, CO calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG raises, Hero calls, CO calls, BB 3-bets, UTG caps, Hero folds, CO calls, BB calls.

I figure the first cold call is giving me enough odds to draw. Sure I could be drastically behind to AA, KK, trips, or some sort of 2 pair, but I figure often enough people will be betting and raising top pair, a smaller overpair, or some sort of draw.

Once it comes back to me for 2 more, I figure it is far more likely I am behind to one of the above mentioned hands, and figure I am likely drawing very thin to dead.

Turn: (15.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG raises, CO folds, BB calls.

River: (19.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB

Comments?

Thanks,
Spicymoose

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to preface this with: I suck.

You're getting what, 10 to 1 on your first call? I don't think that's too bad at all. I feel kinda dirty calling two cold, but I'd feel even dirtier raising, and still a bit dirty if I fold. I'm really not sure here. I think you might be seeing TT, JJ, QQ... enough to merit calling the two cold, but after being capped, like you said I'm not sure how clean your outs are. On the other hand, you're getting absolutely massive odds. But, since you are assuredly not going to be able to get a cheap showdown if you DO hit one of your frightening outs, I'm torn between calling those two cold initially and just mucking there.

Somebody who doesn't suck as bad as I do care to comment?

MoreWineII · #3 12-08-2004, 08:11 PM

Some food for thought is that you're not closing the flop action. BB 3-bet preflop, there's no reason to think that he won't 3-bet the flop too - leaving you facing one or two *more* bets.

Spicymoose · #4 12-08-2004, 08:19 PM

I was getting at least 10:1 or 11:1 without any raises, and even if it was 3 bet I would of been getting 7:1 or 8:1, not even including implied odds. Granted I might be beaten, but I think I have an average of about 3 outs. If I hit my king or ace, I will be getting paid well a good portion of the time. If I miss, I am out.

MoreWineII · #5 12-08-2004, 08:29 PM

Possibly, but the fact that you capped preflop and it's bet and raised to you on the flop doesn't scare you in the least?

Spicymoose · #6 12-08-2004, 08:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Possibly, but the fact that you capped preflop and it's bet and raised to you on the flop doesn't scare you in the least?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't get me wrong, I am definetly scared. I just think that I may have odds here. I think quite often the bet could be a lower PP, and the raise could be someone trying to protect their top pair or something (UTG did not raise at all preflop).

Right now I am about 50/50 on whether or not to call or fold. Are you saying this is a clear fold, or are you just warning me of possible reasons to fold?

MisterKing · #7 12-08-2004, 08:54 PM

MoreWine is right - you'll have to calculate odds on the flop expecting to pay 3 or 4 bets, rather than just two. What did you know about your opponents? You didn't post any reads or context, and I think this would matter a great deal, particularly as it respects the pre-flop and flop raisers. Were they loose cannons, or tight, tactically sound opponents? Any info at all?

Another thing about the flop decisions you face: it will clearly be very expensive to show this hand down even if you make a hand. Your ace outs could be dirty (making someone else's 2 pair, or giving them the same hand), and a K on the turn or river suddenly looks a lot less attractive when you're bet and raised into on the flop after closing the PF action. So in this respect I understand your fold on the flop.

Sometimes you're big PF and just don't flop a hand, no big deal about that. This looks like one of the times where its OK (and relatively cheap!) to acknowledge that by folding (perhaps even to the first two cold).

MoreWineII · #8 12-08-2004, 09:18 PM

Quite frankly, UTG suddenly coming alive on the flop worries me more than the other guy betting.

Anyway, I don't know the correct answer, I suck at odds. I suspect it's debatable (which helps a lot, I know [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] ). Maybe some reads would make the decision for you one way or another.

I think that faced with this unexpected aggression, I'd feel like the cleanliness of my A and K outs were suddenly less than spotless.

FWIW, after reading the whole hand, I think UTG had 99.

Spicymoose · #9 12-08-2004, 11:57 PM

BB had JJ and UTG had T8. My hand would have been good. How sad. Although I know you shouldn't be results oriented, I feel that you should at least remember that a good portion of the time people just act plain stupid.

This is a common problem for me because there are many situations when I "know I'm beat" based on the way people are betting, even when I have a fairly strong hand. Sometimes I call on the river just because the pot is huge "knowing" im going to lose, and am happy to see my opponent show 32o or some crap and me win it all.

MoreWineII · #10 12-09-2004, 12:02 AM

Ah, but I bet you got all these bets back and more from UTG before it was all said and done. Or if not, will over time since I'm sure he's buddy list material.