Save bets or spray chips?

MaxPower · #1 12-08-2004, 11:38 AM

The trend seems to be posting 15/30 hands on Small Stakes, so I'm going along with it.

I had just sat down at this table and had basically no reads on these players. They were both in steal positions, so I asummed they did not need really strong hands to raise or reraise pre-flop.

Just as this hand started I got a phone call from my friend and was talking with him during the hand. That might account for my failure to cap the flop.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
5 folds, CO raises, Button 3-bets, Hero caps, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Button 3-bets, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: (11 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)

Where do I go from here?

Joe Tall · #2 12-08-2004, 11:41 AM

The trend seems to be posting 15/30 hands on Small Stakes, so I'm going along with it.

Have you seen the quality of the posts up there?

Where do I go from here?

I still c/r, their range of hands is too wide not to think you are ahead.

Peace,
Joe Tall

Tosh · #3 12-08-2004, 11:43 AM

I would check call that card.

sthief09 · #4 12-08-2004, 11:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The trend seems to be posting 15/30 hands on Small Stakes, so I'm going along with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

ahh that makes me so happy. I agree with JT (I think that's what he was getting at) that the 15/30 posts are really bumping up the quality of posts a notch or two. I kind of feel bad that I have a 100 post albatross sitting right in the middle of the page. scrub was right

oops, I deleted my first response because I missed the "5 folds" thing. anyway, I'm pretty sure you're behind, but a 7 will usually make your hand best by the river, and maybe a J, Q, or K. on the flop, I think CO has top pair, which means KQ, AQ, maybe QJ-Qx. AJ, KK, or a set are possible too, but I'd expect a slowplay with a set. the button's range is similar but more narrow. AQ, a set (though again, I'd expect a slowplay), or QJs seem probable. I actually like your decision to just call because you can see if the CO wants to cap. when he doesn't it looks a lot like top pair or AJ.

the turn isn't as bad as I'd think. we're pretty sure you have the CO beat, but we think you're behind the button. I'd bet at it. The CO will call, or possibly raise if he has QT, which should subsidize the cost of the button's likely raise. even if he has you beat, you've got at least 3 7's and 2 A's most of the time, which is pretty like. if you get popped on the turn, I'd think about making a "big" laydown on the river

I know it's not your fault you have none but reads are critical in this spot. if the CO has any bit of passivity in him, I'd feel somewhat confident that he has KK. if he's LAGgy, I'd be putting him on a Q or AJ.

Tosh, why check-call? Joe, why check-raise? Both are legitimate options in my mind but I'm wondering why you think they're best. I guess the question is, "how often are we ahead?" and "how important is it to shut out the CO?"

this is gonna be a good thread. I can feel it

Joe Tall · #5 12-08-2004, 12:07 PM

how often are we ahead?"

The flop is draw heavy and there are many hands that would have such preflop/flop action. JT, AQ, As9s, even AK and I think the times we are ahead are off set by the times the CO will call 2-cold here.

I have to think about this more. Either way, I check this turn, not bet. (and not capping the flop stinks)

Peace,
Joe Tall

sthief09 · #6 12-08-2004, 12:12 PM

well if you're putting the button on a draw, then checking becomes less correct, but I don't think it's all that likely. I think we have the CO drawing thin. If we check-raise, we're getting called by a worst, or sometimes better hand, and getting 3-bet by a better hand. if we bet, I think we're going to get raised most of the time, but by betting, we are forcing CO to pay 2 bets, one at a time, getting insufficient odds, and I think there's also a reasonable chance that we don't even get raised. one thing I do like about the check-raise is that it freezes the action. I don't think any hand worse than top 2 will be betting or raising for the rest of the hand. also, if we check-raise the turn and get 3-bet, we check-fold the river unimproved. if we bet and get raised, we'll probably call a river bet unimproved given the pot size, so it's 3 bets either way.

I really think check-calling is too weak here, and, as funny as it sounds, I'm the most weak-tight regular here, so check-calling must be REALLY weak [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

do we agree that CO probably isn't raising and is probably drawing to 2-5 outs? I wanna start to hammer down some things here so we can better estimate the best course of action.

Festus22 · #7 12-08-2004, 12:45 PM

Not capping the flop makes this tougher. If you had capped and led the turn and THEN got raised, the liklihood you're behind goes up. Since you just called and were to lead out on the turn, it looks like a fishy stop-n-go or the king improved you. Now if you're raised, it could be you're beat or the raiser has A-Q and doesn't believe you. In either scenario, if you get raised on the turn it's likely you're behind but more so if you had capped the flop.

So I guess with all that said and how the hand has played so far, I'd bet the turn, call a single raise but fold if it came back 3-bet.

If not raised, lead the river. If raised, check/call the river and hope to see A-K.

MaxPower · #8 12-10-2004, 06:21 PM

Bumping from days ago.

on the turn, I checked, the CO bet, BB called and I called.

The river was a 7. I checked the CO bet, the BB folded, I called. The CO showed AQ.

There seems to be little agreement here on what the best play is.

Joe Tall · #9 12-10-2004, 06:24 PM

There seems to be little agreement here on what the best play is.

That's because they are all chicken $hit. This is a great hand to post and the tough ones, they avoid. Well done, Max.

Here's the thing, I check the turn. If I can safely fold to a 3-bet, I c/r. If not, call down as you did.

Peace,
Joe Tall

sthief09 · #10 12-10-2004, 06:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That's because they are all chicken $hit. This is a great hand to post and the tough ones, they avoid.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah I was pretty disappointed that this hand got no responses... I still think check-calling is way too weak, and I don't think it's fair to completely dismiss a stop n go