Please confirm my mistake so I don't make it again

beachbum · #1 12-08-2004, 05:13 AM

Button and SB are fishy.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Maybe a loose-raise on this table, but I don't hate it.

Flop: (11 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

I've got implied odds to draw to my 2 outer.

Turn: (8 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets, Button folds, SB calls, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

I really like my play here. Hit my 2 outer and made people me for it.

River: (16 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP3 folds, SB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Someone please, PLEASE tell me NOT TO RAISE. UTG+1 and MP3 might even overcall if I don't raise.

Final Pot: 22 BB

Trix · #2 12-08-2004, 05:28 AM

Bet the flop.

"I've got implied odds to draw to my 2 outer"
eh ? at 14:1, Since sometimes you will hit and someone else will improve on the river, you will need to make more than 8SBs. I´d fold if I knew I was behind.

Calling or raising are both fine on the river, depending on:
1) how likely they are to coldcall and
2) how likely it is that SB makes this bet with a better hand, which would be a really bad play as he has a perfect CR oppertunity.
3) how likely SB is to fold for one more bet.

beachbum · #3 12-08-2004, 05:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Bet/fold or bet/call to a raise? I didn't feel I'd have any chance at winning this hand without improving.

[ QUOTE ]
"I've got implied odds to draw to my 2 outer"
eh ? at 14:1, Since sometimes you will hit and someone else will improve on the river, you will need to make more than 8SBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

By this reasoning, you're basically saying to let a PP go on the flop for a small bet if I don't hit trips or something like a gutshot. I fold a missed PP ~95% of the time or more, but it seemed the pot was big enough here. What do I need here, 20:1? A similar scenario would play out if I called 55 OTB to a preflop raiser and 3 cold-callers.

Trix · #4 12-08-2004, 05:59 AM

"By this reasoning, you're basically saying to let a PP go on the flop for a small bet if I don't hit trips or something like a gutshot. I fold a missed PP ~95% of the time or more, but it seemed the pot was big enough here. What do I need here, 20:1? A similar scenario would play out if I called 55 OTB to a preflop raiser and 3 cold-callers."

If he shows you a Queen you can fold, but you are ahead on this flop much more often than you think, which is why you have to bet it.

Whether you can call or not depending on implied odds, depends on alot of things, count the pot and try to figure out what will happen on the turn and river if you hit, see if it makes the odds good enough. Discount redraws and chance of getting raised behind if you arent closing the action.

"I didn't feel I'd have any chance at winning this hand without improving."

Why not ? Why must someone have a Queen here ?
You need to get beyond weak-tight thinking like that when the pot is big. Your primary goal is to protect your hand from overcards when you are ahead. This is worth more than saving a SB when behind. SSH talks alot about this.

pfkaok · #5 12-08-2004, 05:59 AM

Bet the flop b/c its a big pot, your hand might be good, and you want overcards to fold. with 4 other players you can't be sure that anyone has the Q... you'll get called by worse hands, and if you get raised on the flop, well then you'll have a huge pot, so you can take one off if you only have to pay 1 small bet.

Kirg · #6 12-08-2004, 10:13 AM

nm, I need to learn how to read

27offsooot · #7 12-08-2004, 11:11 AM

c-r the flop to an LP bet. Nobody's folding for one bet. Leading won't accomplish much. if it checks through, lead with a non-threatening card. If it's bet from EP with a bunch of callers, u probably do have odds to see the turn, so call. IMO, it depends on who bets, who calls to decide whether to call/raise/fold the flop. But i think checking is optimal to see how others act. Raising the river is fine b/c the other two might have been on draws and folded the river regardless. TP would probably still call down.

GrunchCan · #8 12-08-2004, 11:45 AM

Your primary goal is to protect your hand from overcards when you are ahead.

With 11 SB in the pot when the flop comes, isn't the pot too big for a flop bet by Hero to protect anything? Everyone would be right to call.

7ontheline · #9 12-08-2004, 12:10 PM

I agree with 27; no way are overcards folding here - a lot of people cold-called an UTG raise, you think they're folding their crappy AJo? Check-raising is the only way to get rid of anybody, so I wouldn't bet out. Also, with so many players in I find it hard to imagine that someone didn't have a queen or better PP. At that point any card other than a 9 is bad for you.

beachbum · #10 12-08-2004, 03:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If he shows you a Queen you can fold, but you are ahead on this flop much more often than you think, which is why you have to bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does being ahead on the flop really mean I have to bet it? I might have the best hand now, but does that mean I should "invest" a bet here when this hand is going to win maybe 25% of the time with 5 players at this point. Then if I'm raised it costs me one more bet. At this point, 2 pair, any Queen, gutshots and OESD's are calling or raising my flop bet. Only people a flop bet properly eliminates are those who need runner-runner and they'll fold no matter who bets.

Here's a theoretical example of possible holdings:

Holdem Hi: 741 enumerated boards containing Qs 5s 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9c 9d 199 26.86 542 73.14 0 0.00 0.269
8h 7h 170 22.94 571 77.06 0 0.00 0.229
Ts Ac 173 23.35 568 76.65 0 0.00 0.233
Jd Kh 139 18.76 602 81.24 0 0.00 0.188
2c 2h 60 8.10 681 91.90 0 0.00 0.081

Change one of these holding to having a queen and now my hand is < 10%.

[ QUOTE ]
Why not ? Why must someone have a Queen here ?
You need to get beyond weak-tight thinking like that when the pot is big. Your primary goal is to protect your hand from overcards when you are ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about CR'ing the flop to possibly eliminate gutshots and overcards?

Now take this exact scenario and replace my 99 with AK. Do I bet AK into 4 others? I lean toward check-calling with AK.