How often is this line good?

[pfkaok]

This is a general question, and I was just wondering if this line is often/ or ever correct. I never did this until recently, and I was wondering if this is a decent line to take in the right spots.

Basically its just when you have a mid PP, and are raised PF by somebody on your left, 3-4 players to the flop... then if the flop comes fairly unthreatening, like Q high or J high with no flush draws I bet into him. I'm trying to take adantage of the fact that most players (3/6 and 5/10 at least) will play their overcards fairly predictibaly if they're tight, and at least somewhat aggressive... so anyways, in a spot like this is it right to try a bet/call on flop when the PFRer raises. then if you get heads up on the turn, and no A or K hits, bet/fold.

It just seems to me that people will take the free card to often on the turn when they have overs, and its rare that somebody would raise you with just overs on the turn, esp when you show strenght by betting into them after they had raised on the flop.

I know this is dependent on the assumption that the PFR will raise a flop bet with his unimproved overcards, but it seems like they will at least a good % of the time.

[beachbum]

Well if he raises with AK and flop is Q or J high, or has AQ/KQ with the flop J high, doesn't he have pot/implied odds to call a turn bet?

4 people to the flop for 2 SB => (4 BB + blinds)
After bet/calling the flop => (6 BB)
After you bet the turn => (7 BB)

So he's getting 7:1 pot odds to call for a hand that's likely to hit 6 out of 46 times (his odds) or 6.7:1. Just pointing out the math.

[pfkaok]

Well, I know the math, but him getting proper odds with overcards is better for me than giving him a free shot at it... plus, if he's tight he might not think that his overcard outs are good, since i'm betting into him again. if I get him to fold his overcards when he has correct odds then that's even better.

[mcozzy1]

A lot of people will raise with AQ or AJs from LP. I'm not sure how a Q or a J is a non threatening card. Basically, you're hoping that the raiser has specifically AK.

You could be setting yourself up for disaster on the later streets.

[beachbum]

Right, he could read you as having a set, or QJs on a Jack high board where his AQ is no good, etc. EV on this play would be highly dependent on your opponent's ability to lay it down. Actually him using Bayes' theorem on your possible range of hands might tell him to lay it down too.