Flop is 3 of a kind - I think I botched this

MisterKing · #1 12-07-2004, 05:50 PM

You don't see flops like this very often, and I have to admit I was less than perfectly prepared to play correctly as a result. My questions for you are: 1.) What's my flop action? and 2.) *IF* you get to the river and see it as I did, what's your move?

FWIW, the table was loose/aggressive, with pre-flop raising common, and 3-betting more common than at most 2/4 tables on Party. Hands as low as K7s were going for 3 bets at some points. The info I had on SB at the time of the hand was: VP$IP of 38, PFR% of 14. He had shown down some really miserable hands, but had also made some decent plays as well.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB 3-bets, UTG folds, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

My read on SB was that he could have any PP, Ax (with x=9 or higher), and potentially any two suited broadway cards. I also knew that he would take his hand, whatever it was, too far if overcards did come. So while I was likely to get paid well for an Ace or a Jack, in retrospect I could not count on either to be best, and could easily split the pot with these cards as well. Time to fold on the flop, right?

Turn: (6.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Again, I think I'm spewing chips in a -EV fashion here. Split pot is very likely if I do catch my card. If I don't I'm probably screwed.

River: (9.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Thinking as I had been, I resolved to get paid off when my Jack hit. Afterall, I invested 1.5BB to draw to it. Was this a smart move given SB's PF 3-bet and the likelyhood of a split?

Final Pot: 16.75 BB
Main Pot: 16.75 BB, between Hero and BB.

mike_wzrd · #2 12-07-2004, 06:14 PM

On the flop I'd either call or raise depending on whether I thought the raise would buy me a free card on the turn...player dependent.

River play depends on the player as to whether I'd cap or not. He didn't raise PF, so I can't put him on pocket As -> Qs. He either has a 3 or a small pair.

runa · #3 12-07-2004, 06:22 PM

I think the flop is too big for you to fold for 1 bet. You may still be best at this point. Your ace outs are likely a split or win situation, so all 3 are probably good (maybe discount to 2 to allow for the split possibilities), and your J outs are probably discounted to 1.5 or 2 in the case that you're up against a higher PP when you hit. You're getting 12.5:1 on the flop so its close but I think you can call, and considering the wide range of hands your opponent will raise with it seems ok.

If you can call, can you raise? Does anyone raise in this spot? (maybe free card, possibly best hand now, clean out loose outs that may pair up & increase your chances of winning unimproved, etc)

The turn seems like the more difficult choice. No odds...waver between folding and calling here...there's still a good chance you're ahead.

The river is ok. You describe BB as fairly overaggro so I would probably go in for 1 raise on this river, maybe cap but probably call down that 3-bet (maybe worried about high PP now?)

EDIT: I think the chances of you splitting the river are very very small. He would have to have a J, but he is just as likely to have AK, AQ, AT, or some PP either higher or lower, maybe the very unlikely case 3. Win or lose here.

djoyce003 · #4 12-07-2004, 06:26 PM

Well, you are worried about 4 hands. AA KK QQ and 77. He 3-bet preflop so he can't have a 3 in his hand unless he's a maniac. You hit the hand you were drawing for and you raised. I don't really have a problem with this. I'm guessing because this thread is on here, that he did in fact have AA KK or QQ. However, I don't think you can go around worrying about monsters under the covers on every hand. I wonder if he would 3 bet 77. I guess it's possible and his post flop bets and river re-raise certainly follows that line of reasoning. Again, I don't have a huge problem with you betting out. Call the re-raise however don't cap.

MisterKing · #5 12-07-2004, 06:26 PM

By the way, when I say I have reads on SB, I meant BB. Just a goof on my part. His PF 3-bet I think means I have to play cautiously throughout. Raising with a weak ace-high does not seem like a +EV move on the flop or turn, IMO.

runa · #6 12-07-2004, 06:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, the table was loose/aggressive, with pre-flop raising common, and 3-betting more common than at most 2/4 tables on Party

[/ QUOTE ]

I think given this read we assumed he was raising/3-betting very loosely so you have a decent chance you're ahead on the flop. (and pretty big VPIP, PFR stats)

MoreWineII · #7 12-07-2004, 06:39 PM

Tough hand.

My first thought was raise the flop. But it doesn't look like it's going to buy you a free turn card. BB is probably going to three-bet any PP and maybe even AK. And you've still got MP2 to worry about, looks like he loves to call.

I don't know, I might think about folding the turn. I'd hate to pay another BB only to lose a few more on the river when my JJ333 loses to QQ-AA333.

Chances are good you only split if an ace hits too. A lot of it is largely dependent on BB's preflop 3-betting stadards. If he was the one 3-betting K7s, this all changes.

mike_wzrd · #8 12-07-2004, 06:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, you are worried about 4 hands. AA KK QQ and 77. He 3-bet preflop so he can't have a 3 in his hand unless he's a maniac. You hit the hand you were drawing for and you raised. I don't really have a problem with this. I'm guessing because this thread is on here, that he did in fact have AA KK or QQ. However, I don't think you can go around worrying about monsters under the covers on every hand. I wonder if he would 3 bet 77. I guess it's possible and his post flop bets and river re-raise certainly follows that line of reasoning. Again, I don't have a huge problem with you betting out. Call the re-raise however don't cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

I read the post wrong as I missed the preflop 3 bet. Need to stop doing two things at once.

With a 14% preflop raise percentage, table going 3 bets a lot and a guy showing down some bad hands at times, you can't automatically put him on AA, KK or QQ. Depending on the player, I'd still consider a raise on the flop.

River is fine.

MisterKing · #9 12-07-2004, 08:45 PM

Right, but I guess my point is, what if I give him credit for a hand like 22 or 55. Then what? I'm drawing to 6 outs on each street, and have that other player to worry about as well. When I win, I'll often win only half of the pot. When make my jack, I'll still sometimes lose. I know it sounds crazy, but my inclination at this point is to consider a fold on either the flop or turn.

mike_wzrd · #10 12-07-2004, 09:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Right, but I guess my point is, what if I give him credit for a hand like 22 or 55. Then what? I'm drawing to 6 outs on each street, and have that other player to worry about as well. When I win, I'll often win only half of the pot. When make my jack, I'll still sometimes lose. I know it sounds crazy, but my inclination at this point is to consider a fold on either the flop or turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your getting roughly 13 to 1 odds from the pot with 3.13 to 1 odds of hitting one of your 6 outs. Hitting either card beats pocket pairs of 22 through 1010. If you hit a J, you probably win outright. You might split with an Ace, but you also beat all the pocket pairs 22 through KK. Why would you fold getting those kind of odds? I think it's way too weak tight to fold in this situation.