My WSOP $2K NLHE Bustout Hand

A few weeks ago I posted about a hand where I held AK in the big blind and smooth-called a late-position raise, and was roundly chastised for not coming over the top.


Here I am in the WSOP $2000 No-Limit Hold'em tournament held on Monday, April 22. It's just after the first break, and I've got a stack of about $3500. Blinds are (as I recall) $200 and $300. I'm in the #3 seat, in the big blind, holding Ah Kh. Max Stern, in the #6 seat, opens for $600, twice the big blind. He has at least twice as many chips as I do. (Stern and I had never played together before, but we have had some time to watch each other during this tournament.)


Remembering the discussion here earlier (as well as discussions with friends) I decide that the right course of action is to put just about half my stack in and see how Stern reacts, and to push the rest in on the flop unless it is truly terrifying.


So I put $1500 more in. Stern thinks for a moment, then just calls. I'm reasonably sure that if he had AA or KK he'd move in; I put him on a medium pair, no bigger than QQ.


The flop comes ragged, ten-high. If he has TT, I'm toast, but I think I can push him off anything else. I "consider" for a moment, then push the rest of my stack in.


Stern thinks for a while, and then calls, seemingly reluctantly. "All right, let's see those aces" says the player to my left. We turn our cards up. No help on the turn or river, and Stern's pocket queens hold up.


What do people think of my play?


(A) They don't call it "Walking Back to Houston

for nothing. Muck it before the flop and wait for aces.


(B) Try harder to push him off before the flop. Move all-in.


(C) Once he calls you before the flop, you know

your hand is second best. Check and fold on the

flop.


(D) "Don't get cute in the big blind." Call the

small raise, and see whether the flop hits you.


(E) Other: ________________________________

I believe that a pre flop raise (allin)in that situation would have forced the other player to consider risks,maybe even put you on a better hnd and not call?

In my opinion , a better play would have been to call the $600 raise , see the flop and fold with a stack of $2900. I n your mind he could have QQ .This is not intended to be Monday morning quarterbacking.You gave him credit for a hand and failed to listen to yourself.

> Here I am in the WSOP $2000 No-Limit Hold'em tournament


OK, this is way out of my league and probably you guys think two or three levels deeper than I ever would, but it seems to me that this play maximized the likelyhood to only get called when you're beat .


My vote is B or maybe D.


cu


Ignatius

Choice A is insane.


Choice D means you check and fold on two out of three flops, and make almost nothing on the rest of them (Max Stern probably isn't paying you off when a king flops, and certainly not when an ace flops). Also, you risk flopping top pair when Max flops a set, in which case you lose all your chips. Still, the pot is offering you 3-1, and the odds against your liking the flop are about 2-1, so this is likely a profitable play. But I don't think it's your best choice.


I don't know what Max is up to with this minimum raise, but I have a real hand. I'm all-in. No way I'm letting him see a flop if he has a small or medium pair, or suited connectors, or even a weak ace.


And I don't want to make it 1800 either. There are two problems with this. 1) If he reraises I have to call, and 2) He's much more likely to call (or reraise) with medium pairs if I make it 1800.


If I move in, Max Stern probably won't call me with TT or JJ. He may even fold QQ (although that's unlikely given his stack size). Let's reasonably say he folds anything but QQ, KK, AA, and AK there. Even if he needed AJ or better to raise, that leaves you with an 80 percent chance that Max will fold. Not only that, 5 out of 7 times that he calls, you'll be up against QQ of AK, where you are essentially a coin flip. The only time you're really in trouble is when he has AA, which is less than a 3 percent shot.


The downside to moving in, of course, is that it increases your chances of going broke. But that's a risk I'm willing to take with AKs. Moving in increases your chances of winning the pot, and increases your EV.


I vote for B.


Matt

For what it's worth, here's my prior post where I discussed my smooth-calling a late-position raise with AK. Differences between that situation and this:


(1) The raiser was in late position, not early.


(2) Antes as well as blinds made the pot rather bigger than the bet size.


(3) I had a less-than-average stack instead of one that was comfortably more than average.


(3) The raiser (Paul Kho) was a solid Bay Area local, but not a world-class player with a bracelet.

Alan,


I think it's too early in the tournament to give your stack away on approximately a 50% chance. If I didn't flop a big draw or an ace or king, I'd fold to a bet.


The larger stack will usually call in this situation. The reason for this is he thinks because he has queens you could have aces, kings, or ace-king. There are 16 combinations of ace-king, 6 combinations of aces, and 6 combinations of kings. So, there are 16 combinations he beats and 12 that beat him. So, he basically has a 57% chance to beat you in this situation.


I would avoid reraising with AK preflop when a solid player with a large stack comes in with a raise. But, if his stack was smaller than mine, I'd probably reraise all in preflop.


Good Luck


Mark

Alan,


In this spot, with the chips being the way they are, I'm in favour of your flat- calling Stern's raise and seeing what the flop brings.


On the flop, I believe (C) is your best play;

you don't have a hand any more, just two overcards.


Giving it up before the flop isn't an option,in my mind-if you don't play this hand in this spot, what will you play, and how will you ever get action?


perfidious

I'm not going to comment on your play except to say that there is discussion of this exact situation in David's new tournament book. You may want to look at it.

> he thinks because he has queens you could have aces, kings, or ace-king. [..] he basically has a 57% chance to beat you


???


12/24*53.8% + 6/24*18.8% + 6/24*19.1% = 36.3%, so he is almost an 2:1 dog. With that read he should fold: He is only getting 3:2 if the money goes in preflop. And when he calls, he can get away 1/3 of the times, win in on the flop 1/3 of the times, but will lose it all 1/3 of the times. Even if he figues that AK would always bet into him, the best he can hope for (short of a set) is a coin-flip for all his chips.


cu


Ignatius