#1
|
|||
|
|||
Side bet, specific card on flop
I'm not sure on the math, this looks hugely -EV for the sucker.
A player offers unlimited action at 10:1 against a certain card to appear on the flop (before anyone looks at their cards). So someone picks a specific card, puts up $X and if that card appears on the flop they get 10 x $X otherwise they lose. I think this is actually closer to 20:1 to occur? J |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Side bet, specific card on flop
Prob = (1/52)*(51/51)*(50/50)*3 = 3/52 ~ 1/17
So yeah, it's a sucker bet. But what makes you think that people would make the bet? |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Side bet, specific card on flop
Pretty sure that's wrong slickpoppa.
I get: 1 - ncr(48,3)/ncr(52,3)=.2174 So the "sucker" is only a 4 to 1 dog. gm |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Side bet, specific card on flop
Sorry, I should have been more specific...he wanted you to pick a specific card (suit and rank, i.e. 9 of clubs). I like side bets (not taking them, just the idea they're out there...they keep things in a gambling mood) but I don't think this one was tempting enough to get much action.
J EDIT: perhaps making it any suit and laying 3:1 would be more exciting, I wonder what your variance would be on something like that (can you tell I'm no good at math? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). edited again because it's late and I can't write correctly either. |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Side bet, specific card on flop
oh, i see. the OP (not you) should have been more specific. but you're right on for that calculation.
sorry for the confusion, gm |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Side bet, specific card on flop
i'm sure you're not planning to rip anyone off while you're waiting for the cards to be shuffled, so a far better bet for a bit of fair action between friends would be for you (or him) to pay him (or you) 5 to 1 if the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] flops
then you work on your bottom-dealing skills and clean up |
|
|