Interesting Flush Draw + overcards hand

[Lmn55d]

Hey guys I thought this hand was cool. On the flop I decided to just call the initial bet because I thought that was the best way to get the most value out of my hand because that pot wasn't too big yet. When button raised and 2 coldcalled, I decided to push...I knew I was ahead of top pair unless their kicker was an ace or queen and thought I had some folding equity in this big pot, plus if 2 of the 3 guys folded there was lots of dead money. Was this a good play or no?

***** Hand History for Game 1249792679 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:7598379 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Thursday, December 02, 12:08:44 EDT 2004
Table Table 13878 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 8: Rynoceros ( $800 )
Seat 1: oardispatch ( $995 )
Seat 9: HarryHood ( $800 )
Seat 5: zairas52 ( $800 )
Seat 3: davo81 ( $785 )
Seat 4: mojorisin22 ( $800 )
Seat 10: itsmineneway ( $800 )
Seat 6: Jdubden13 ( $785 )
Seat 2: alittlepoke ( $635 )
Seat 7: ChadayM ( $800 )
Trny:7598379 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HarryHood [ Qh Ah ]
zairas52 calls [15].
Jdubden13 calls [15].
ChadayM folds.
Rynoceros folds.
HarryHood calls [15].
itsmineneway folds.
oardispatch folds.
alittlepoke calls [15].
davo81 calls [5].
mojorisin22 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6h, 8s, Jh ]
davo81 bets [45].
mojorisin22 folds.
zairas52 folds.
Jdubden13 calls [45].
HarryHood calls [45].
alittlepoke raises [150].
davo81 calls [105].
Jdubden13 calls [105].
>You have options at Table 13786 Table!.
HarryHood is all-In.
>You have options at Table 13812 Table!.
alittlepoke is all-In.
davo81 folds.
Jdubden13 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4c ]
** Dealing River ** [ 3s ]
alittlepoke shows [ Qs, Js ] a pair of jacks.
HarryHood shows [ Qh, Ah ] high card ace.
HarryHood wins 165 chips from side pot #1 with high card ace.
alittlepoke wins 1630 chips from the main pot with a pair of jacks.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

Bad play, IMO. Not terrible, but. Well. First of all, you're ahead of top pair with the overcards and 4-flush, but not by much and you really have no reads and can't be sure that your opponents are going to be willing to lay down top pair here.

Also, this is so early in the tournament. Picking up this pot would be nice, but, in this situation, really not worth it for me.

Fold and get 'em later.

[slickterp]

yeah. with draws you have potential, but ace high is never ahead of a pair. he has a pair, you don't have anything. all in w/ a draw is terrible here. calling is okay b/c you do have the overcards and the draw, but it's too early to push.

[Lmn55d]

you really need to review some basic odds. I am a 54% favorite against top pair here. There are actually several situations where "ace high" is ahead of a pair.

[etgryphon]

Its an iffy play...

With that many people in the pot already it is a tough to go allin. The more people you have the less of a chance of having fold equity, especially with cold-callers.

Lets look at the math:

1. You have 1.5 out for each of you overcards for a total of 3 outs. (if you don't know why this is pick up Small Stakes Poker from twoplutwo)
2. You have 9 outs to the nut flush.

Total outs: 12

With the river and the turn coming with you allin this gives you a 45% chance or 1:1.2 odds against making you hand.

Pot: 585 + (740 ur allin) + Their call = ~1525 - ~2065
Pot odds: 1525 to 2065 / (470 to 740) = ~2.2:1 - ~1.8:1

So over one hundred hands:
100 * ((45% *(1525 to 2065) - (55% *(470 to 740))

This comes out to be +425EV - +523EV

Therefore,

It is a positive EV play, but you have to decide if you want to play when you can almost garrentee that you are behind in the hand. It is a good cash game play, but its up to you if you want to gamble a bit in a tournament setting.

-Gryph

[slickterp]

being a favorite and being ahead are different. certainly you are still favored in this hand with two overcards and a flush draw, as well as the backdoor straight draw. however, you are not ahead, you are losing currently to a better hand. if you can tell me when an ace high five card hand will beat a five card hand containing a pair, i'd love to hear about it.
it's b/c you are favored that you call here and take one off. pushing this early is clearly dangerous, unless you really feel that someone will lay down. however, based on the fact that 2people had already called the 150 raise, i would think that it would be tough to get all 3 to lay down. hence, when you get called, you are probably getting called with a hand that is beating you (currently), though you may still be favored.

[Lmn55d]

i dont really understand the distinction that you are making between having a made hand and being a favorite. I mean clearly there is a difference, but I think the important factor to look at is pot equity rather than whether a hand is "made" or not. This distinction seems kind of unimportant.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont really understand the distinction that you are making between having a made hand and being a favorite. I mean clearly there is a difference, but I think the important factor to look at is pot equity rather than whether a hand is "made" or not. This distinction seems kind of unimportant.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's important to make a distinction between being ahead in a hand or a favorite to win when you are considering fold equity, that is, your opponent being ahead=less fold equity.

[slickterp]

in a tournament, i find it very relevant b/c you can't reload like you can in a ring game. if you lose there is no next hand. i'm just trying to tell you why i don't push here. i certainly don't fold, but pushing is too risky early on like this if you are fairly certain you are not ahead, which it is safe to assume you are not when there are 2 callers to a raise. think about it this way: what are they calling with? if they have the J, it's pretty likely they're calling a raise w/ QJ, KJ, or AJ. given that two of those hands negate your advantage of having two overcards, you essentially lose 3 outs, giving you 12 (9 to flush and 3 for the one overcard you have tht your opponent does not). this gives you odds to call for sure, but if you push and get called, there's a good chance you're in deep [censored].

[Lmn55d]

i agree completely. SO the question becomes this: WIll I be able to find better EV opportunities than pushing here. In other words, not making a +EV decision is only correct if you can expect to have the chance to make even better EV decisions in the future. The EV calculated by the guy in another reply seems fairly significant. Maybe you can help me figure out this part of the question.