Hand that knocked out Josh Arrieh in WPT Qualifier Last Night

[Prime Time]

Below is the hand that "knocked out that Mother F...." (lol remember final table when Josh wispers to Williams aboout Fossil Man)
Josh is razorbax obviously.

In fairness to Josh, I don't know anyone except for Phil Helmuth that could have gotten away from this hand.


PokerStars Game #900519628: Tournament #3521278, Hold'em No Limit - Level VII
(100/200) - 2004/11/27 - 20:33:41 (ET)
Table '3521278 1' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: namepod (12045 in chips)
Seat 2: Gamecock1 (4550 in chips)
Seat 3: Phaedrus (8365 in chips)
Seat 4: milkshakeman (6537 in chips)
Seat 5: gotmilk (6090 in chips)
Seat 6: razorbax (5650 in chips)
Seat 7: Chicago28 (9455 in chips)
Seat 8: JP123 (8703 in chips)
Seat 9: PGA71 (19910 in chips)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PGA71 [4h 4s]
Gamecock1: folds
Phaedrus: folds
milkshakeman: folds
gotmilk: folds
razorbax: raises 400 to 600
Chicago28: folds
JP123: folds
PGA71: calls 500
namepod: folds
*** FLOP *** [4c Qs As]
PGA71: bets 600
razorbax: raises 1000 to 1600
PGA71: raises 1200 to 2800
razorbax: calls 1200
*** TURN *** [4c Qs As] [5d]
PGA71: bets 16485 and is all-in
razorbax: calls 2225 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [4c Qs As 5d] [9h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PGA71: shows [4h 4s] (three of a kind, Fours)
razorbax: shows [Ad Qh] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
PGA71 collected 11675 from pot

Any comments?

[SossMan]

looks like josh has a bad habit of flopping big hands when his opponent flops a small set. He really needs to stop doing that if he wants to win.

that hand played itself.

[La Brujita]

FWIW preflop I think it is pretty close as to whether your hand is playable for set value given his stack size. Do you give up on most/all flops that don't flop a set or a straight draw? I don't think it is a bad call but I probably would have folded. What kind of payout structure was it?

I like that you led out on the flop, perhaps just a minor stylistic difference but I like to bet at least 1/2 the pot here (which is pretty much what you did). I do it for optics.

Once he reraises I put him all in on the flop. It seems to me his reraise pretty much commits him to play against most reraises. I feel like a reraise might (i) make it look like you are trying to use your stack to bully (ii) make it look like you are on a draw or (iii) make it look like you are protecting against a draw. The last point is not that clear but what I am trying to say is if he is on a flush draw he is probably getting all in. If he happens to think you are playing a draw a spade on the turn might make him fold some of his hands.

Don't know if that makes sense.

Best regards

[Prime Time]

pay out structure was top 13 qualify for trip to Bahamas and a WPT entry worth $11K total.

Thanks for comments.

[slickpoppa]

I'm disappointed. This would have been the perfect opportunity for you to say, "You think we're playing tiddlywinks here?"

[adanthar]

I haven't watched enough of the WSOP to nail down Arieh's playing style, but if he's on the LAG side I'm not sure I like the flop reraise. If Arieh has AJ or a total bluff he probably finds a fold here somewhere, whereas he'd happily give you his chips on the turn if you just call.

[nightlyraver]

People on this forum have called many of my analysis "helmuthian" but I feel that Josh did not play this hand optimally. Honestly, with no reads I too would go broke here. However, your betting scheme seems to scream that a set has been made or you both have exactly the same hand.

My rationale: He open-raises in MP for 3xBB (~12% of his stack) and you flat call with a huge stack. Ok, that's to be expected with many hands. However, the flop comes as it comes and you bet out a little less than half the pot. IMHO, this means only 2 things when the flop is 2-suited and it's HU - you hit 2-pair or better OR you have top pair with a questionable kicker. The latter is actually less likely since you would tend to bet closer to 2/3 the pot if you REALLY want to find out if a weak ace is good. Next thing that happens is that he raises more than 2.5x your initial bet. If you had a weak ace, you would dump it most situations unless you're gonna try and bluff at it. However, you put in a very suspicious re-raise to his raise. At this stage in the tourney, this sets off warning lights in my head (a min. re-re-raise, that is) since it appears that you love your hand and are just trying to get more money in the pot. This usually does not comport with a semi-bluff of any kind. I would then think back at what hands you could possibly have called a raise with pre-flop and then bet like this now. I would usually rule out AK which could comport w/ a flat call of a 3x raise from a short stack, but the betting scheme on the flop simply does not - same thing goes for hands like AJ,ATs or A9s. Since you seem to be begging for a call on the flop and turn, I would generally assume that you either flat called pre-flop w/ AA so you could trap later on, OR you made a questionable flat call w/ 4's - either way you hit a set. QQ I feel is the least likely holding since that usually requires a re-raise pre-flop. The only other hand that I could even conceive of betting in this fashion is a pair w/ a flush draw, but that only leaves K4s,K5s,J4s,J5s and unless you are a total maniac on a large stack, those can safely be ruled out.

Having that said, this is a really difficult hand to get away from. Against many players, I would have to go broke here. However, against a reasonably TAG player I could dump this hand and still have more than 10xBB and be able to continue.

[jayheaps]

given his stack size, i would have reraised all in. i would have put him on a pair and a flush draw.

[nightlyraver]

Not possible to put him on a pair and flush draw. The two high cards were 2-suited and the non-suited card on the flop was a 4. He could only have K4s or J4s to be on a pair and flush draw and that's just not likely at all unless the player is a maniac. Also, big stacks w/ a pair and a flush draw would not be raising small increments since it would not make the other guy have to make a decision - player seems to just want to get more money in the pot, not make Josh fold.

[zaxx19]

LOL bashing Arieh .....He's 8x the player Raymer is you can take that too the bank and deposit it...

Wait someone posts a hand were Raymer over plays AQ preflop after a raise then moves in post flop with tpQK and you guys have 50 excuses mainly (he was "playing the player" lol). Arieh gets beat with top 2 pair against a small concealed set and its postable...whatta a joke. This is how people get busted get over it. They catch excellent hands and cant get away from them period.Thats why its worth it too flat call with baby pairs. Cut and dry hand.