AQo turn semi-bluff....

Fat Nicky · #1 11-22-2004, 05:31 PM

No read on villain

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, 4 folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.66 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises....

Comments?

Edit: It might be valuable to mention that the villain took a while to call my turn raise (not sure if this means anything?

Also, does everyone think it's safe to assume that my A and Q are clean outs??

zram21 · #2 11-22-2004, 05:34 PM

Assuming villan call, what is your plan on the river? Are you going to bet if checked to regardless of what falls?

Redeye · #3 11-22-2004, 05:36 PM

Do you have any reads on your opponent here? For such a semi-bluff to be profitable, you'll need your opponent to fold some percentage of the time. If he's passive, this might just be peeing away money.

Fat Nicky · #4 11-22-2004, 05:38 PM

Just edited post. No read on villain.

Fat Nicky · #5 11-22-2004, 05:41 PM

If a blank falls on the turn, i'm checking behind. From my experience, when villain calls me on the turn, he will generally call a non-scary river card.

sfbruin · #6 11-22-2004, 05:48 PM

If you raise the turn, he's probably calling w/ a lot of hands at this point. If your flush hits, he'll most likely check a board w/ 4 spades on it, seeing as you've shown aggression on the turn, and may not even call your river bet. But he'd also likely check a spade on the river even if you had just called. Why not just call the turn and plan on betting or raising the river if a spade falls, or folding unimproved. Most opponents are not folding this hand on the turn after showing aggression on the flop and turn.

jmark · #7 11-22-2004, 05:51 PM

I like it if you think your opponent can lay it down, I guess this would be read dependent. If your opponent is reasonable, I would guess he has some kind of a pocket pair. The overflush card is a nice scare card for you. I also like your Q outs.

butters · #8 11-22-2004, 06:04 PM

I'd only try this if I had a good read on MP2 that I could get him to lay down a made hand here. Otherwise, I think you're charging yourself another BB to draw out on him.

Redeye · #9 11-22-2004, 06:11 PM

Here is some sketchy math I've done on the situation. It was quickly done since I'm supposed to be doing more important things, so there may be errors. Anyways, here goes:

Assumptions (some possibly not likely):

1. You have 10.5 outs to a winning hand. I'm counting 9 spade outs plus .5 out for each ace overcard out since they may not be any good.

2. You will get paid on the river if you make your flush or hit an ace and win

3. You will not be 3-bet on the turn

If you call you will win 23% of the time making the EV of calling about +1.3BB (assuming you get paid on the river)

In order for the semibluff raise to be greater EV:

4.66x - 2*(.77)(1-x) + 6.66(.23)(1-x) = 1.3

4.66BB: pot won if opponent folds
2BB: amount we peed away by raising if we don't hit river
6.66BB: size of pot if opponent doesn't fold but we hit river card

where x is % opponent folds.

Therefore your opponent would have to fold greater than about 30% for this move to be greater EV than calling down. Some of the assumptions aren't too valid because we won't always get paid off on the river when we hit, and we also may be 3-bet, so the actual fold % would have to be even higher. My analysis and/or math may be off, but I think generally you need a pretty good read on your opponent to make this more profitable then calling the turn.

zram21 · #10 11-22-2004, 06:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If a blank falls on the turn, i'm checking behind. From my experience, when villain calls me on the turn, he will generally call a non-scary river card.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like it unless you are planning on betting the river almost regardless of what falls. The move likely gives you a free showdown, but you are likely going to lose this hand unimproved.

Now if you think it is likely that he will check and fold a made hand on the river even if you miss then I like the bet. You have to have a decent read for that though. With no read I just call the turn bet and fold unimproved on the river.