10/20 swings

[jfresh]

what's a "normal" swing during an average session at 10/20 SH? 50 BB? 100 BB (i hope not)? more specifically, being up or down (insert number here) BB is completely ho-hum.

how about over the course of a playing week of, say, 25 hours 4-tabling? What kind of BB deviation is normal? Are you "guaranteed" to swing at least 150 BB over the course of a week? 200 BB? not necessarily total net; for instance you are up 75 BB after 15 hours of play then down 75 BB after 25 hours.

i've been playing winning 5/10 SH for about 50k hands, but i know 10/20 is more aggressive, so i assume the swings won't be the same.

i just want to get a feel for the game, as i don't want to get too cocky, if i win 200 BB in the first week, nor do i want to feel like quitting poker if i lose 200 BB the first week.

[JRichman]

I four-table 10/20 about 12 hours/week and have a long-term win rate of just over 2BB/100.

To give you some idea of volatility:
PT shows a standard deviation of 16BB/100.
About 2/3rds of my sessions are winning.
I have a -100BB swing about once every 6 weeks.
The largest downswing I have ever had is about 150BB.

So,100BB downswings are not all that regular an occurence, but they do happen.

I would say any BB swing of less than 30 falls into the "ho-hum" category.

[tilting]

[ QUOTE ]
I four-table 10/20 about 12 hours/week and have a long-term win rate of just over 2BB/100.

To give you some idea of volatility:
PT shows a standard deviation of 16BB/100.
About 2/3rds of my sessions are winning.
I have a -100BB swing about once every 6 weeks.
The largest downswing I have ever had is about 150BB.

So,100BB downswings are not all that regular an occurence, but they do happen.

I would say any BB swing of less than 30 falls into the "ho-hum" category.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would say you have been exceptionally lucky. Not only are you winning 66% of your sessions and your max loss is 150BB, but you are having a 100BB downswing only once every, what, 30k hands?

I don't think that is anywhere near the norm for this game.

[JRichman]

Do you really think this is out of bounds?

To clarify, I'm not defining a session as any time I sit down at a table, but any time I play. PT shows my winning sessions as 50%. Since I try to be pretty selective about the tables I play, this includes a lot of times when I may only be at a table for 30 or 40 hands.

My stats are over 8 months, though I've only been four tabling for 3 months or so. Can I really be that lucky?

[jfresh]

not saying your stats are false, but i seem to recall from gonores and schneids 60k challenge, that 50 BB daily and 100-125BB weekly swings are the norm? I don't remember exactly, which is why i asked the question. i'd also like to hear more people's experiences. i'd be estatic if 30BB swings are all that happens a daily basis though!

[partypokerer]

I just dropped ~350bb in about 20k hands. Although im not completely sure im a winner at this level as my winrate is now only about .5bb/100 for 35k hands.
Anyone else getting swings this big?

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]

I just dropped ~350bb in about 20k hands. Although im not completely sure im a winner at this level as my winrate is now only about .5bb/100 for 35k hands.
Anyone else getting swings this big?

[/ QUOTE ]

I went up a little over 200 bbs my first 6k hands, then went on a 350 bb slide. I currently stand -140 bbs after 11k hands.

I am not playing as optimally as many of the full timers around here, but I have carefully looked over my play and my opponent's play throughout, and I am fairly confident I can beat the game. The swings are just that large.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
not saying your stats are false, but i seem to recall from gonores and schneids 60k challenge, that 50 BB daily and 100-125BB weekly swings are the norm? I don't remember exactly, which is why i asked the question. i'd also like to hear more people's experiences. i'd be estatic if 30BB swings are all that happens a daily basis though!

[/ QUOTE ]

JRichman plays well and I have no reason to doubt his stats but I will say Gonores and I both play substantially more aggressive than him and therefore will likely probably experience more swings. He might be running well and just be lucky to have experienced so few swings thus far but I think his style of play also allows for smaller swings (hopefully you don't mind me making these comments JRichman).

And speaking for myself, I practice very mediocre table selection. So if he's practicing awesome table selection that probably helps minimize some of his swings.

[sxb]

If JxxxRichman is your handle, your win rate is much better than 2bb/100 in my pokertracker database. For 1,482 hands, from 10/02/2004 to 10/24/2004, you won $2,779.00 with a win rate of 9.38BB/100. Great job.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
And speaking for myself, I practice very mediocre table selection. So if he's practicing awesome table selection that probably helps minimize some of his swings.

[/ QUOTE ]

How so? When I'm picking a 10/20 table I'm looking for one or two 45%/29% guys who induce some pretty wild swings.