Poll...call or fold

[willie24]

$30 sng, down to 2 players.
you start the hand with 6080 chips. your opponent has 7420.

you are on the button/BB with T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB is 600. your opponent completes, you check.

flop (1200)
2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

your opponent goes allin. you have 5480 left. your opponent is a typical strong player...tight aggressive. so far has not shown big-time looseness shorthanded (you would not expect this to be a pure bluff, but of course, at this point, you cannot rule that out.)

[willie24]

the results of this poll are quite interesting, and perhaps useful.

the question they are useful for is not whether to call or fold this particular hand, but how likely you should be to put your opponent to this decision.

[Unarmed]

A random $5 or $10 buying opponent with T7 will call a push here nearly 100% of the time. Just because we're hesitating doesn't mean a fish will. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Klak]

i would call. you have top pair and hes most likly drawing. i dont see many better situations than this coming up.

[willie24]

this may be true. but what are the chances that your opponent (that is, the bb/button who has to make the decision) actually has a hand as good as 7T?

[Bigwig]

Even if your opponent is drawing, it's very possible he has other clean outs.

For example, he might have K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

From twodimes:

pokenum -h kd 5c - ts 7c -- td 5d 2d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Td 5d 2d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5c Kd 511 51.62 479 48.38 0 0.00 0.516
Ts 7c 479 48.38 511 51.62 0 0.00 0.484

In this scenario, you're an underdog. Why call such a massive bet as an underdog. You don't have tons of time, but you still have a stack that an all-in win will likely give you the tourney.

Even if the raiser has no part of the flop, say K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] :

pokenum -h kd 6c - ts 7c -- td 5d 2d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Td 5d 2d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6c Kd 456 46.06 534 53.94 0 0.00 0.461
Ts 7c 534 53.94 456 46.06 0 0.00 0.539

You're still not that far ahead.

I fold.