Standard

[Scotch78]

Small sample size, but Fish's VP$IP=90%, 0% PFR and AF=1.14

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP calls, CO calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, SB <font color="purple">(Fish)</font> calls, BB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Fish bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP folds, CO calls, Fish calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Fish bets</font>, Hero folds, CO folds.

Final Pot: 9 BB

[MisterKing]

I don't think "fish" is the problem in this hand. CO is. Assuming he's remotely reasonable, you're in a tough spot. I think the PF and flop action is fine.

When you get to the turn, I think the choice is:
-raise,
-call all the way to a showdown,
-fold, or
-call &amp; see what happens on 5th street.

I don't like option #2 (calling all the way down), and folding just doesn't feel right. That leaves either raising, or calling with the intention of re-evaluating on the river.

At the turn, don't you think fish might have A8 or a four flush? With an AF-TOT above 1 for "fish," this seems like it could be true. J9, JT, T9 all seem possible as well, perhaps with heart(s). All of these hands need to be raised.

The trouble is, if fish has a queen, you only have two outs to beat him. Your straight can't make it there, and no flushes are possible. If he has 87, which I also believe is very possible, then you have 8 outs (2 jacks, 3 Q's, 3 2's). Leaving the CO aside, this is enough outs to raise with, I think (as a semi-bluff).

The fish is not likely holding AA/KK given the PF action. And he'd probably be 3-betting a set on the flop, no? So bottom line, you have to decide on the turn once and for all if he has the queen.

IF you conclude "fish" doesn't have the queen, then you must address a second question: what the hell is CO holding. I think this is much more difficult. CO has cold called two bets on two different streets. What could he have that would warrant this? If he's behind you, he's got to have something like AK, or perhaps 99/TT, or suited hearts (KhJh or AhXh). All of these hands demand that you raise "fish's" turn bet to get the CO out.

CO is getting 5.5:1 on a call IF you raise. That means he's probably mucking AK/AhJx, along with 99 or TT. He's only staying around on his four flushes, Qx, and overpairs. I don't think you can rule an overpair of QQ out, so we'll include them for analysis purposes.

Of his reasonably possible hands that don't make a four flush (AKo, AhJx, 99, TT, AQo, AA, KK, QQ, KQs, QJs, JJ, KQo), he's dumping 5 of 12. Of the hands that DO make a four flush (AhXh, AhJh, AhKh, AhTh, KhJh, JhTh*), he's folding exactly zero. I put a star on JhTh because I don't see too many people coldcalling with this, but I suppose its still possible. So of the 18 most likely hands CO will have, he's folding less than 1/3 for two bets on the turn.
Baaad news.

Of course he did fold, so maybe he had one of those 5. Or he had something different and I'm insane. Either way, you couldn't have known this when it was on you at the turn. If its you and fish heads-up, I raise every time. But the presence of CO demands that you fold.

Its unsatisfying to say that, given my note above that "folding seems weak," but the situation just doesn't look right. Calling down all the way is probablay the worst move, since if offers CO the right offs to draw to a ton of hands, including gutshots (giving him 10:1 on the turn).

I think raising isn't horrible, but again, I'll reluctantly endorse your fold.

[MisterKing]

Here are some interesting scenarios as far as EV:

pokenum -h jd js - 8d 7c - ah th -- qh 8h 2s 7d
Holdem Hi: 42 enumerated boards containing 2s 7d Qh 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jd 6 14.29 36 85.71 0 0.00 0.143
7c 8d 28 66.67 14 33.33 0 0.00 0.667
Ah Th 8 19.05 34 80.95 0 0.00 0.190

pokenum -h jd js - 8d 7c - ks qs -- qh 8h 2s 7d
Holdem Hi: 42 enumerated boards containing 2s 7d Qh 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jd 2 4.76 40 95.24 0 0.00 0.048
7c 8d 32 76.19 10 23.81 0 0.00 0.762
Ks Qs 8 19.05 34 80.95 0 0.00 0.190

pokenum -h jd js - 8d 7c - jh th -- qh 8h 2s 7d
Holdem Hi: 42 enumerated boards containing 2s 7d Qh 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jd 6 14.29 36 85.71 0 0.00 0.143
7c 8d 25 59.52 17 40.48 0 0.00 0.595
Jh Th 11 26.19 31 73.81 0 0.00 0.262

[Scotch78]

Great avatar.

Scott

[MisterKing]

eh, thanks. I can't claim much credit for it... I saw someone else on 2+2 with it, liked it so much I made it mine as well. Imitation is the greatest form of flattery, right?

[Scotch78]

Storytime . . .

So I'm meeting with my advisor one day, talking about applying for grad school and she tells me to make sure that I mail any reference letters myself, so that I can read them first. Then she tells me about the time she wrote a reference letter that consisted of the sentence, "###### has great penmanship."

Scott

PS Naphand, this is all your fault. Take some pencillin and don't come back until you're no longer contagious.

[Rakkad]

I'm stubborn, but I'm calling him down. Fish do strange things.

[Bill Smith]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm stubborn, but I'm calling him down. Fish do strange things.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling is the worst thing you can do here, IMO. If he wants to stay in this pot, he should raise and hope CO drops. It probably also gets him a "free" showdown.