Nut straight vs. scary board... advice on river please...

[GlemZurg]

Should I just check this river or should I bet?

Any advice on rest of hand appreciated too.

Thanks,
Justin

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (7 handed)

BB ($170.8)
UTG ($67.6)
MP1 ($52.1)
MP2 ($58.35)
GlemZurg ($50)
Button ($55.3)
SB ($42.2)

Preflop: GlemZurg is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls $1, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, GlemZurg calls $1, Button calls $1, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($4.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">GlemZurg bets $4</font>, Button folds, BB folds, UTG calls $4.

Turn: ($12.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">GlemZurg bets $12</font>, UTG calls $12.

River: ($36.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="red">GlemZurg ???</font> (I'm short stack at the river with $33.)

[Tilt]

My thinking is that you should check behind. I dont see how there is any value in another bet, considering that you wont get called very often and reraised all in alot. Consider the options:

Push or bet large: Risky. You could easily have been set up by the made flush or boat. And if he has neither, he wont call so you get nothing out of it, unless you cause him to fold KT. Thats not worth the risk.

Make a value bet: I think this is not a good move. You throw 10 into the pot, hoping hell wonder if his small straight or queen in the hole is good. For the very few times you'll get paid by a call, you will face an all in reraise lots of times, and you wont know if its a bluff. Better to wait and induce a river bluff when you have the nuts.

Also with the check you will get some valuable info on your opponent from seeing what he shows down on a hand like this. Was he checking the nuts? Calling the turn fishing for another diamond? Good data points to know.

[Richie Rich]

Since your opponent was only check-calling on the flop and turn, I think it's pointless to make a value-bet at the end with position. Chances are, you won't be called. And if he's trying to play "cute", he might push and make you wonder. Why put yourself in that situation?

The fact that your opponent check-called on the two previous streets makes me think he was on a flush draw, or maybe held a T for the str8 draw. In fact, the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Tx doesn't seem too far off the mark. He also may have caught his flush on the turn and is hoping that you'll bet for him on the river.