#1
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Please help with my calculations here !!!!!!
I have been getting beaten up with sets to my overpairs recently and was just wondering about my calculations here..... here is one example of a hand
Sorry no converter....100NL i have QQ make it $10 to go, 3 early limpers call...POT ~$45 flop 679 checked to me i bet $30, guy reraises me for all his chips which makes it $60 more to me..pot now around $160.. obvious set rigth...anyway my question is what % of the time does this guy not have to have a set for my call to be correct instead of folding and losing $45 100% of the time...could someone please show me the correct way to figure this out..i did it in my own little way an come up with a number somewhere around 20% of the time he has to have a hand like A9 for my call to be better than a fold..Obviously if i knew he had a set a fold is best..but in these games you just never know. |
#2
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Re: Please help with my calculations here !!!!!!
[ QUOTE ]
what % of the time does this guy not have to have a set for my call to be correct [/ QUOTE ] I was confused by this, but I'll provide a possible jumping off point. Let's say you assume he'll only do this with a set or top pair, ace kicker. There are 3 ways for him to have each of the 3 possible sets. There are 12 ways for him to have top pair, ace kicker. That's a total of 12+9=21 equally likely hands. EV(call) = (160 * 9/21 * 0.105) + (-60 * 9/21 * 0.895) + (160 * 12/21 * 0.775) + (-60 * 12/21 * 0.225 ) This is using approximate showdown monte carlo probabilities. Note that the probabilities multiplied by their occurrence add up to 1.0. I didn't bother solving this but I think given the assumption I made, the call is +EV. To answer YOUR question, you'll have to expand on this according to hands you think he might do this with. As you can see, the "% of time of not having a set" depends on the other hands you select. Set EV = 0 and make sure the probabilities scaled by their occurrence sum to 1.0. If you are really interested in this, you might take a stab at it, then post under Probabilites to get a check of your math and your assumptions. |
#3
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Re: Please help with my calculations here !!!!!!
i was not aware of the other forum....I appreciate it.
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