simple free card play

[theBruiser500]

Just looking at an old Diablo hand in the archives which starts like this, 6 max, MP limps, Diablo raises in CO with AJ, MP calls. Flop is 772. MP leads out, Diablo raises. I guess this is a standard play and the analysis in this hand focussed on later streets but I want to make sure I understand this flop play.

If MP has a pocket pair, Diablo has 6 outs which will hit about 1/4 times I think. If this is the case then he can't really call the flop bet cause he will hit it on the turn 1/8 times but the pot is 6.5 SB, so he's just barely not getting odds, plus he'll have to face a turn bet which will be 2 SB to win 9.5 SB which is definitly not right. If he raises the flop though he puts in 2 SB to win 7.5 SB and he gets two free cards, so that only needs to be profitable 2/9.5, and he hits 1/4 so that's a good play.

However, if Diablo gets three bet on the flop, that is a disaster isn't it? So to make this play he needs to be sure his opponent is passive. Then he needs to look at the chances that he will get 3 bet anyway vs. the odds that when he raises he is actually ahead in the hand, what do these odds need to be?

Am I looking at this correctly, thoughts on this situation?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

i think you're vastly underestimating the times that diablo will actually have the best hand on this flop.

[Your Mom]

AJ is good here a majority of the time. When it isn't, the flop bettor will try to c/r the turn most of the time.