Good enough to push?

Garland · #1 11-07-2004, 12:47 AM

Location: Ultimate Bet
Stakes: $.5/$1
Players: Fairly loose passive

I don't think the opponent in question has done anything crazy. Is this hand good enough to push?

All comments appreciated.

Garland

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (5 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($166.25)
UTG ($66.75)
Garland ($85.50)
Button ($232.75)
SB ($130)

Preflop: Garland is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, Garland calls $1, Button calls $1, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($5) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $8, Garland raises to $22, Button folds, SB raises to $79, BB folds, UTG folds, Garland ????

Biff M. · #2 11-07-2004, 01:30 AM

If I knew UTG was a rock who never bets unless he has a good part of it, I would have called. Obviously putting him on the last J leaving SB with only one possible hand to beat yours.

If not, I would have folded - being behind to J4, fours, and AJ.

DBowling · #3 11-07-2004, 02:49 AM

Do you have any idea how loose villian is out of the SB? If he'll complete with anything, theres a huge range of hands he could have. If he's typical player, maybe hes got JA, JK, JQ, JT, J9, 44. If he hasnt impressed me as being a very tight player, i think i call here. If he's been real quiet and appears to be a nut peddler, maybe MAYBE i fold.

"dont go broke in an unraised pot"

willie24 · #4 11-07-2004, 02:52 AM

do you think you will win more than 37% of the time? i think you definitely will and should push.

hands that you would fold to if you knew he had them: 44, J4, AJ. it's true that there's a good chance he has one of these hands. i don't think its over 60% though. even if he does have one of these you have a few outs.

escargo · #5 11-07-2004, 05:02 AM

for a loose passive game, an overbet from UTG followed by a big raise... then a check raise from SB to put you all in probably means SB has you beat... and i would fold.

I would put SB on 44... because UTG may have also had a jack but lower kicker than you...which only leaves 44 a likely holding.

If the game was LAG i would call allin any day

But then again... every1 else posts says to call...and they prob know better then me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

schwah · #6 11-07-2004, 06:34 AM

i'd call in a second. he limped from the sb which means he could have just about anything, but lots of online players would raise there with AJ. my guess is he has a smaller jack. if he has something like 44 then tough luck, but you'll have the winner often enough to make the call worthwhile.

willie24 · #7 11-07-2004, 12:13 PM

i think it's unlikely that UTG had a jack. its hard for a mediocre player to fold a jack here. my guess is he was taking a shot at a scary board (hence the overbet).

cornell2005 · #8 11-07-2004, 12:26 PM

he isnt bluffing.

but you have to call. he will make this move with more hands that you beat then hands you lose to. and like another poster said, you only need to be good like 30% of the time to call. folding here is a huge leak. i even call with lesser jacks.

GimmeDaWatch · #9 11-07-2004, 01:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
he isnt bluffing.

but you have to call. he will make this move with more hands that you beat then hands you lose to. and like another poster said, you only need to be good like 30% of the time to call. folding here is a huge leak. i even call with lesser jacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its closer than all that and player dependent. The thing is, if the guy were really solid, he'd know that your raise means he's probably drawing to 3 outs with anything worse than QJ, so against a solid passive player I think youre behind over 80% of the time. Unfortunately, alot of players arent all that solid and the pot odds are quite enticing, so its close. I agree that UTG almost certainly didnt have a J.

Garland · #10 11-07-2004, 07:59 PM

After UTG folded, I believed he was just on a flush draw or some pair and trying to take a stab at the pot. When SB went over the top of me, I had some thinking to do. I called thinking SB would do this with just about any J and my kicker was sufficient. If I had a Q kicker, I would probably reconsider and fold.

When the river came the case J, I knew exactly what SB had: a flopped full house (pocket 4s) that I sucked out on.

Thanks for everyone's comments!

Garland

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (5 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($166.25)
UTG ($66.75)
Garland ($85.50)
Button ($232.75)
SB ($130)

Preflop: Garland is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, Garland calls $1, Button calls $1, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($5) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $8, Garland raises to $22, Button folds, SB raises to $79, BB folds, UTG folds, Garland goes all-in for $84.50. SB calls.

Turn $182 (board: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]):

(no action in this round)

River (board: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]):

(no action in this round)

Showdown:

Garland shows J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Garland has J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] four jacks.

SB has 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

$2 is raked from a pot of $182.
Garland wins $180 with four jacks.
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