..time to short gold..%%$$$

[scalf]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]..merely a technical play..big short time..

jmho

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[GeorgeF]

I bought some ASA @ 41. I don't see an especially bad chart. ASA also sells at a discount to NAV which could help me in the future. I also don't see much buy gold propaganda in the press.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ASA&t=6m

[maroondude]

"buy gold propaganda" or Goldbegs as they are called in my industry come and go, but should not be dismissed too lightly. Fundamentaly, I believe that gold is overvalued, but some of the people I work with are claiming that there could be shutdowns/slowdowns of gold production which would greatly effect supply. In general, be wary of speculating the gold markets. It have a 50 pip spread, trades with 100:1 leverage, and can break really hard when it makes a move.

[OrangeCat]

Probably not a good idea to short gold for a couple of reasons: The dollars decline and the gold ETF which should be available before year end.

http://www.indexfunds.com/archives/a...tor_demand.php

[maroondude]

Well Gold hit a 12 year high yesterday, I just think we are in for a correction. As long as supply holds at current levels (there were some rumors in the markets early this week that it was not going to)I see no reason why gold should be valued at much more that 415 per troy oz. The only reason people are buying it now is that they are scared and are following everybody else.

[laserboy]

The price of gold is practically unchanged from a year ago in terms of Euros or any other sound currency. The "rise" in price is more a reflection of the weakening US dollar more than anything else. The same can be said of "rising" oil prices.

The reason people are buying gold is because they are becoming increasingly aware of just how worthless the US dollar realy is.

[maroondude]

Well,
Laserboy does has done a pretty good job summing up the position of the bears and Mr. Greenspan's comments tend to support some of those worries. The thing is that even if you believe that the USD is fundamentally weak, I believe that it would not be wise to short the USD with AUX. The reason why I say that is that if you are not making a bet based on the strength or weakness of gold itself you could short the doller with greater liquidity and with a much closer bid ask spread in the Forex market. The CHF (Swiss Franc)for example is very closely linked to the price of gold, but has a 3-4 little number spread rather than a spread of 50 for gold. Something I would think a lot about is the JPY or the GBP as well, but I will save that talk for a later conversation.

[laserboy]

[ QUOTE ]
Well,
Laserboy does has done a pretty good job summing up the position of the bears and Mr. Greenspan's comments tend to support some of those worries. The thing is that even if you believe that the USD is fundamentally weak, I believe that it would not be wise to short the USD with AUX. The reason why I say that is that if you are not making a bet based on the strength or weakness of gold itself you could short the doller with greater liquidity and with a much closer bid ask spread in the Forex market. The CHF (Swiss Franc)for example is very closely linked to the price of gold, but has a 3-4 little number spread rather than a spread of 50 for gold. Something I would think a lot about is the JPY or the GBP as well, but I will save that talk for a later conversation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Trading foreign currencies takes a tremendous amount of expertise in foreign markets as well as a large amount of capital. In both cases, much more than the average individual investor has to spare. Given some of the advice you have given, I find the fact that you work in finance somewhat disturbing.

For people that really want to profit from the collapse of the dollar, I recommend READING and LEARNING as much as possible on foreign markets and commodities. Jim Rogers' books Investment Biker and Adventure Capitalist are a good start.

[maroondude]

Well actualy, it takes less capital to trade the FX markets than it does to trade the gold markets. So what I said was quite right in terms of risk for the retail trader. Having said that, neither of these types of investments are for people without a good bankroll,time and dicipline. And I stand by my comments that I think the USD will get a bounce over the next 6 month to a year. If nothing else the Fed will jack up interest rates the way they did under Volkler 20+ years ago.

[laserboy]

Gold and commodity ETF's, mutual funds, or individual stocks can be invested in with far less capital and with far less overhead. ETF's in countries rich in natural resources and with fiscally responsible central banks (basically the opposite of the US in both cases), for starters.

What evidence is there in Alan Greenspan's past that would lead you to believe that he would ever do the right thing? He has been an absolute failure at everything he has ever done in both public and private enterprise. When the going gets tough, he will try to "fix" the economy the only way he knows how - by printing money. He couldn't carry Paul Volcker's jock.

Regardless, the US dollar is screwed either way. Interest rates do not change the fact that the US economy is rotten to the core. We are a country with no natural resources that produces nothing, the twin deficits aren't going anywhere. Volcker has gone on record of predicting complete economic collapse within the next five years. Warren Buffett and Stephen Roach have made similar comments. Not exactly the tinfoil hat wearing goldbug type...