How can Party SNGs be long-term profitable?

Lloyd · #1 10-30-2004, 07:42 PM

This is a serious question. I think I play quite well. I've certainly won my fair share of MTTs, no-limit ring games, and have probably won more than I've lost in 1-table SNGs. But I just can't believe that 1-table SNGs (at least on Party) are anything more than luck. Pretty much every game comes down to 7 or 8 people with huge blinds and everyone shortstacked. So whoever gets lucky and doubles up usually finishes in the money.

I guess there is some skill in selecting what hands to go all-in with. But what else am I missing? I've read a lot here about people earning long-term profits playing 1-table SNGs. Where else does skill come into play? How can they be profitable?

SmileyEH · #2 10-30-2004, 07:46 PM

There are a million posts on this subject in this forum. Read them.

-SmileyEH

Lloyd · #3 10-30-2004, 07:57 PM

With all due respect, people need to stop posting the answer "there are a million posts on this, read them." I'm not new to 2+2. Do you not think that I've done an extensive search and failed to find the answer I was looking for? Now, perhaps my search skills need improving. But nonetheless, I would of course search for an answer prior to posting a question this general.

eastbay · #4 10-30-2004, 07:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a serious question. I think I play quite well. I've certainly won my fair share of MTTs, no-limit ring games, and have probably won more than I've lost in 1-table SNGs. But I just can't believe that 1-table SNGs (at least on Party) are anything more than luck. Pretty much every game comes down to 7 or 8 people with huge blinds and everyone shortstacked.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shallow money poker is not as much luck as many seem to believe. There's substantial theoretical and empirical evidence for this on this forum.

If you're not experienced at it, it may seem like pure luck. It isn't.

eastbay

Irieguy · #5 10-30-2004, 08:07 PM

Here's one version of the answer:

A SNG is a zero-sum game (minus the rake). If everybody played the same, you would finish in each position 10% of the time, and lose the rake.

But, if for some reason, somebody were to play in such a way as to finish in 10th place more often than 10% of the time, what would happen to everybody else's results? They would finish in 1st a disproportionate amount of time to the extent (divided by nine) that the one bad player finished 10th a disproportionate amount of time. So, that begs the questions, 1) is it possible to play in such a way as to finish in 10th place more often than average? and 2) does anybody play that way?

The answer to those questions is clearly yes, and you should be able to see that if you've played very many of these. Now, extrapolate those questions to finishing 9th-4th and you've got your answer. Now imagine if more than 1 person played this way, and you were able to play in such a way that you actually did BETTER than average. You could really make some money if that were possible...

Irieguy

lorinda · #6 10-30-2004, 08:19 PM

Pretty much every game comes down to 7 or 8 people with huge blinds and everyone shortstacked.

Don't be one of the 2 or 3 and you'll be fine.

Lori

RcrdBoy · #7 10-30-2004, 10:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With all due respect, people need to stop posting the answer "there are a million posts on this, read them."

[/ QUOTE ]

Most people don't search enough and the same questions get posted over and over. If you read here all the time you've seen that.

In fact, I think responses like this should be posted more often, not less.

Desdia72 · #8 10-30-2004, 10:44 PM

good answer.

i think there's a reason they call it "Party" poker.

FishBurger · #9 10-31-2004, 01:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty much every game comes down to 7 or 8 people with huge blinds and everyone shortstacked. So whoever gets lucky and doubles up usually finishes in the money.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is certainly not true at the $22 level on Party. I just played in an SNG where if you knew how to operate the fold button, you made into the money. We were down to three people by level 3.

I'm not a great player. I'm not even sure if I'm a good player, but I've won a few thousand over the course of a year-and-a-half playing mostly $5, $10, and $20 SNGs. The key for me is patience. I generally fold about the first 30 hands and then start playing aggressively after that. By the time I play my first hand, there may only be five or six people left out of the ten that started.

When I first started playing hold 'em, I thought the ring games would be easier to beat than the SNGs. The Party SNG games just seemed like a total crap shoot to me. However, after I lost about $300 in $1/2 limit, I started playing $6 limit SNGs and found that I could beat them. Now I'm playing $10-$20 NL SNGs on PokerStars and Party, and find that as long as I'm patient, I make money.

Although I would have no idea how to prove it mathematically, I believe the SNGs are profitable because several players knock themselves out in the early rounds. Additionally, selecting the right hands to play in the later rounds is also helpful.

Daliman · #10 10-31-2004, 05:08 AM

I fail to see how this is a serious question when it shows a complete lack of understanding of how SNG's work and how tournament poker and even poker itself is played. I mean, it's just whoever happens to get the best cards that certain time, right?