Trips vs. 4-flush on 4th Street--relative odds?

In heads up action on 4th street (assume the other 6 players folded on 3rd or 4th) between a live 4-flush and trips, what are the odds of each hand winning if both go to the river? Does the 4-flush win 20 hands out of 100? 25 hands? Does anyone know the relative strength of these hands?


A related question: what if the matchup is three deuces vs. a live 3-flush/live pair of Aces on 4th street?


(these questions arise from the 10-20 hand at Foxwoods posted below)


Thanks in advance for any insight.

In the first case it's about 70% for the trips.

The trips do even better in the second case. Over 80%.

the flush is a 2-1 dog (approx). the size of the trips doesnt matter.


pat

Pat, what if the matchup is trips vs. a live overpair/live 3-flush (such as 3 deuces vs. a live pair of aces/live 3-flush) on 4th street?

i am kind of guesstimating, but it is around 85% for the trips. But one issue is that it is probably not that important to know the answer to this question exactly. there are very few situations where this is important since the pair and a three flush is not strong enough to play unless the pot is huge. whether it is 5-1 or 6-1 you rarely have enough pot odds to play. The first example is one that will come up fairly often,for example when you play vs a paired door card. Even then it is more important to assess the probability of trips based on how the opponent plays than to know that vs. trips you are a 2-1 dog. in any game below 15-30 (and even at 15-30) in that situation the pot will usually be big enough to keep playing.


Pat

Hi,


The 4-flush should always fold in this case. It is not just an odds-question, but also a question of raising possibilities. If the trips fill up it can always raise and reraise, while it is very difficult for a flush to raise, because of the risk of being reraised, if the trips fill up.


JN

to complete the flush,U are NOT a 2 to 1 dog to WIN.

Why??

Sitting Bull

you are mistaken. the chances of making a flush are a lot better than 2-1. you are about 2-1 dog to win. But, the chances of completing a four flush if totally live is over 50%. the trips can redraw and will make a full house or better about 40%. These numbers are approximate since it depends on the number of cards out and the number of dead cards.


So, the chances of winning are .5 times .6 (chance of not filling) or 0.3, which is 7-3.


Pat

2c 2d 2h 9d-$1.35

As 4s 8s Qs-$0.65


2c 2d 2h 9d-$1.63

As 4s 8s Ac-$0.37


These return on the dollar results are from Turbo

7cs, 100K hands no fold profile and are rounded

to the nearst penny.