#1
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Zogby Battleground State Polls
John Zogby has released ten new state polls from the battleground states. These are telephone polls, not the phony interactive polls he was using before.
COLORADO Kerry 49% Bush 45% FLORIDA Bush 49% Kerry 46% IOWA Bush 47% Kerry 45% MICHIGAN Kerry 52% Bush 42% MINNESOTA Kerry 46% Bush 45% NEVADA Bush 48% Kerry 44% NEW MEXICO Bush 49% Kerry 44% OHIO Bush 47% Kerry 42% PENNSYLVANIA Kerry 47% Bush 45% WISCONSIN Bush 48% Kerry 45% All these polls were done October 21-24. |
#2
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Re: Zogby Battleground State Polls
Seems like pretty good news for Bush with him taking down both Ohio and Florida.
Intereresting in Colorado in only that it was my understadning that the move to change how the electoral votes in the that state are divided was mainly driven by Kerry supporters and it looks like it may end up costing him. |
#3
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Re: Zogby Battleground State Polls
Of course you can't put too much weight on any one poll.
Other Colorado polls: Rocky Mountain News -- Bush 47, Kerry 42 Gallup -- Bush 51, Kerry 45 Mason-Dixon -- Bush 49, Kerry 43 Ciruli Associates -- Bush 48, Kerry 42 Other Florida Polls: Insider Advantage -- Kerry 48, Bush 44 Washington Post -- Tied at 47 Survey USA -- Kerry 50, Bush 49 Mason-Dixon -- Bush 48, Kerry 45 University of North Florida -- Kerry 45.3, Bush 43.8 Quinnipiac -- Bush 45, Kerry 43 Other Ohio polls: University of Cincinnati -- Kerry 48, Bush 46 ABC News -- Kerry 50, Bush 47 Rasmussen Reports -- Tied at 47 FoxNews -- Bush 47, Kerry 45 SurveyUSA -- Kerry 49, Bush 47 Mason-Dixon -- Bush 46, Kerry 45 |
#4
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Re: Zogby Battleground State Polls
[ QUOTE ]
Of course you can't put too much weight on any one poll. Other Colorado polls: Rocky Mountain News -- Bush 47, Kerry 42 Gallup -- Bush 51, Kerry 45 Mason-Dixon -- Bush 49, Kerry 43 Ciruli Associates -- Bush 48, Kerry 42 Other Florida Polls: Insider Advantage -- Kerry 48, Bush 44 Washington Post -- Tied at 47 Survey USA -- Kerry 50, Bush 49 Mason-Dixon -- Bush 48, Kerry 45 University of North Florida -- Kerry 45.3, Bush 43.8 Quinnipiac -- Bush 45, Kerry 43 Other Ohio polls: University of Cincinnati -- Kerry 48, Bush 46 ABC News -- Kerry 50, Bush 47 Rasmussen Reports -- Tied at 47 FoxNews -- Bush 47, Kerry 45 SurveyUSA -- Kerry 49, Bush 47 Mason-Dixon -- Bush 46, Kerry 45 [/ QUOTE ] So I guess I'm back to thinking polls are pretty much worthless in close elections. Great I was all set to relax. |
#5
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The Horserace Blog
The Horserace Blog
This blog just combines all the polls together to get a "Super Poll". The result is based on thousands of respondents in each state, but methodologies are mixed. Ohio Bush: 47.3% Kerry: 46.1% MOE: +/- 1.4% (Based upon 7 Polls; 4,679 Respondents) Probability of Bush Lead: 87.08% Florida Bush: 47.9% Kerry: 45.8% MOE: +/- 1.6% (Based upon 5 Polls; 3,634 Respondents) Probability of Bush Lead: 97.19% Iowa Bush: 48.0% Kerry: 45.2% MOE: +/- 2% (Based upon 3 Polls; 2,026 Respondents) Probability of Bush Lead: 96.49% Wisconsin Bush: 47.6% Kerry: 45.6% MOE: +/- 1.7% (Based upon 5 Polls; 3,126 Respondents) Probability of Bush Lead: 94.95% New Mexico Bush: 48.0% Kerry: 45.3% MOE: +/- 2.2% (Based upon 3 Polls; 1,825 Respondents) Probability of Bush Lead: 94.74% Minnesota Bush: 45.7% Kerry: 46.9% MOE: +/- 1.8% (Based upon 4 Polls; 2,835 Respondents) Probability of Bush Lead: 18.41% Michigan Bush: 44.9% Kerry: 47.4$ MOE: +/- 1.7% (Based upon 5 Polls; 3,236 Respondents) Probability of Bush Lead: 2.17% Nevada Bush: 48.1% Kerry: 43.2% MOE: +/- 1.3% (Based upon 4 Polls; 2,351 Respondents) Probability of Bush Lead: 99.88% Colorado Bush: 48.3% Kerry: 44.7% MOE: +/- 1.9% (Based upon 4 Polls; 2,496 Respondents) Probability of Bush Lead: 99.45% Pennsylvania Bush: 45.7% Kerry: 47.7% MOE: +/- 1.6% (Based upon 5 Polls; 3,654 Respondents) Probability of Bush Lead: 3.75% |
#6
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Re: Zogby Battleground State Polls
Nobody believes that CO number. Zogby has a CO Senate number out that is out of whack as well: Salazer +9. Salazer may be winning, but not by nine. Kerry has canceled his planned visit to CO later this week and pulled ads.
The Zogby polls confirm what the Mason-Dixon polls of last week indicated: that Bush wins a fairly comfortable win if the numbers do not change. The state numbers are moving into line with the national numbers which show a durable Bush lead of 2-4 points. Note that Hawaii and CT have new polls indicating they are close as well. |
#7
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Re: Zogby Battleground State Polls
The polls are especially worthless in this race with a record number of newly registered voters. What demographics do they fit in, who they will vote for, how many of them wil actually vote, ect. Basically what will happen is that one or two of the polls will appear right on the money, and will get braggin rights for the next 4 years, while no one will be sure if their methodology was correct or if they just happened to get lucky. Since most people enjoy results oriented thinking they will assume that it was corredct and rely to heavily on that (or those) particular polls next election, where it is very likely that voter turnout will drop off severly (or at least registration) and there methods will be way off.
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#8
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Re: Zogby Battleground State Polls
This is what it looks like with the Zogby numbers:
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#9
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Rasmussen 48-46....KERRY
First time he has led in quite a while. Kerry has some momentum heading into final week.
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#10
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Re: Rasmussen 48-46....KERRY
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