Sox-Yanks odds

[Nate tha' Great]

FWIW I have a little model that predicts baseball outcomes based on the score after a given inning. It accounts both for the quality of each offense and the quality of opposing pitching.

As of the middle of the 2nd, the model places the Red Sox odds of winning the game are about 86.5%. This accounts for the fact that Derek Lowe sucks.

Update: Sox up to 89.9% after the Yanks go scoreless in the second.

[lorinda]

You can buy at 87 at Wsex.

Lori

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
You can buy at 87 at Wsex.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't bet sports, ironically.

[lorinda]

It may be interesting to compare at the end of each inning, see how the model ties in with the punting.

I'll use middle numbers rather than available, so the 87 would be 85.

Lori

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
It may be interesting to compare at the end of each inning, see how the model ties in with the punting.

I'll use middle numbers rather than available, so the 87 would be 85.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll post updates here if I'm around.

[lorinda]

85, end of three.

Edit: Just crept up to 86, which seems strange to me.

Lori

[jerome baker]

u trade baseball on wsex lorinda?

[lorinda]

Very light and very occasionally, I use betfair more often than anything, there are some genuine mugs there :P

Lori

[Nate tha' Great]

I'm showing Sox 89.4% / Yanks 10.6% after 3. Scoring one run doesn't help all that much; Yanks need a big inning.

Also tweaked somewhat to account for use of top-tier relief pitchers in the 8th/9th for both teams. However I'm discounting this somewhat because of fatigue, especially for the Sox bullpen.

[jerome baker]

what are mugs/
btw, how's the spread on betfair.