Party Poker badbeat jackpot odds

ILL34GL3 · #1 10-18-2004, 01:32 AM

Can anyone tell me the odds of hitting the badbeat jackpot on PartyPoker? The qualifying conditions are quad 8's or better beat. Both cards in hand must play and at least four players must be dealt into the hand. Of course there are usually 9 or 10 players at each table.

Neil Stevens · #2 10-18-2004, 03:25 PM

Sounds little better than a lottery.

ILL34GL3 · #3 10-18-2004, 04:15 PM

Thanks for your informative reply Neil. NEXT! I'd also like to encourage anyone who plays on these badbeat tables to email partypoker protesting their 10% administrative fee on the jackpot which is little more than a hidden double rake. The jackpot belongs to the players and party is making enough on the standard rake and the interest they accumulate while the jackpot is building.

Glenn · #4 10-18-2004, 08:24 PM

You know, you can just not play at the BB tables....

ILL34GL3 · #5 10-18-2004, 10:06 PM

Uuuuuuhhh yyyyeeeah I know but thats where the fishies are schoolin'. Anyone have a legit answer? I just wanna know what I'm tossin' 50 cents at from every pot besides the privilege to sit at the same table with these ultraloose players.

liquidboss · #6 10-18-2004, 10:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You know, you can just not play at the BB tables....

[/ QUOTE ]I have this arguement with friends all the time. I think there are only two ways the BB tables are profitable: 1. The players are consistantly a lot worse, which I sometimes think they are especially at 2-4 since its the lowest limit. In this case you aren't actually making money from hitting the jackpot but from morons chasing it with straight flush and quad draws.2. The jackpot is huge, which sometimes it is. This is like playing the lottery only when its giant. The problem with this is the odds don't change, its still like winning the f-in' lottery.The huge jackpots also seem to draw a lot of bad players so that's another reason to play then. All the NL players come over and people move up limits when they shouldn't.Good Luck...

TheTimeIsUp · #7 10-18-2004, 10:47 PM

I am also wondering what the odds are. Can someone educate us here?

liquidboss · #8 10-18-2004, 11:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You know, you can just not play at the BB tables....

[/ QUOTE ]I have this arguement with friends all the time. I think there are only two ways the BB tables are profitable: 1. The players are consistantly a lot worse, which I sometimes think they are especially at 2-4 since its the lowest limit. In this case you aren't actually making money from hitting the jackpot but from morons chasing it with straight flush and quad draws.2. The jackpot is huge, which sometimes it is. This is like playing the lottery only when its giant. The problem with this is the odds don't change, its still like winning the f-in' lottery.The huge jackpots also seem to draw a lot of bad players so that's another reason to play then. All the NL players come over and people move up limits when they shouldn't.Good Luck...

[/ QUOTE ]That is some messed up formatting... Too bad it's passed edit time. Sorry guys...

o0mr_bill0o · #9 10-18-2004, 11:49 PM

how many times a week is this posted? you're not going to be able to work this out exactly since there will be times when people fold hands that would have eventually qualified. a good way to work out the effective odds is to just track the jackpot size whenever it's hit. you can take the number and work out how many hands were played in between, then after a bunch work out the average.

Awesemo · #10 10-19-2004, 12:02 AM

I'm not going to figure it out, but a way to estimate the odds would be to start with the board. The board either needs to be double paired for quads beating quad 8s, paired and str8 flushed, or just a 3 straight flush. Figure out the percentage of the times these are satisfied. Now figure out the probability that two people have two specific cards each, which 9.344 * 10E-7. Now you need to adjust for the fact that there are multiple straight flush possibilties in the second case. You should come up with the answer. What I am interested in more is how the EV of playing hands changes with the jackpot.