Kerry "leading," even according to Gallup

Chris Alger · #1 10-13-2004, 12:06 PM

A Sept. 15 Gallup poll showed Bush leading by 13 points, prompting some to conclude the election was over. Today's NY Times has a story about newly worried GOP operators and Gallup just released a new poll showing Kerry leading by a point, with Bush's popularity on the plummet again.

GWB · #2 10-13-2004, 12:10 PM

Gallup readjusted their Party Mix ratios to stem the criticism of previous polls. This thread has a link to the data, if you are interested.

Adjusting numbers to suit your critics... that gives me a lot of confidence in their numbers. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

adios · #3 10-13-2004, 02:29 PM

But wait it can't be, grey assured us that Gallup was a biased in favor of the Republicans when it showed Bush was winning by 13. Now it shows Kerry winning in a few weeks? WOW maybe Kerry's really winning by 13 since Gallup is so obviously biased.

ThaSaltCracka · #4 10-13-2004, 02:32 PM

I don't think Gallup is biased at all. Whatever their poll says I am more likely to believe because they have been doing it the longest and probably have the most accurate system. I would say this with confidence regardless of who was winning.

tolbiny · #5 10-13-2004, 02:33 PM

Gallup has changed some of their polling methods since then. A nation wide poll doesn't really mean much (except in attempting to galvanize your voters) because all but a few key states are set. Individual state polls are much more important to predicting the winner IMo- except no one seems to agree on a decent polling system.

tolbiny · #6 10-13-2004, 02:35 PM

"Adjusting numbers to suit your critics... that gives me a lot of confidence in their numbers"

Your right GWB, we should all ignore our critics because we are all infallible and therefor should never
1 admit we were wrong
2 never stray from the course

They may very well have changed their polls because they had been convinced that there was a more accurate way to predict the outcome.

adios · #7 10-13-2004, 02:38 PM

I agree with your reasoning. It's grey that had the problem with Gallup and now not a word from him when it shows Kerry is doing much better.

adios · #8 10-13-2004, 02:40 PM

How accurate were the polls in 2000? If memory serves me correctly not all that accurate and the margin for error seems that it's impossible to glean a lot of useful information since the race is so close.

ThaSaltCracka · #9 10-13-2004, 02:43 PM

When George Gallup developed his system of polling people, everyone said he was wrong and that it was inaccurate, but remarkably it is an incredibly accurate and unbiased polling system. I can bet that the Gallup Company has refined their system greatly to where it is now. I would trust their polls over just about anyones, especially all these little dinky companies called "Freedom Polls for America" or whatever the hell their names are.

tolbiny · #10 10-13-2004, 02:45 PM

Hence the last line of my post-

I really don't think polls are important in close races, they seem to be more for entertainment value and rateings.
In fact this whole election seems like a ratings stunt more and more. (on both sides, not to mention the nader crap going on)