A7 in the BB against a TAG -- stop and go

[MHarris]

UTG+2 is ~18% VP$IP, 8.5% PFR. Flop AF is 15.00 and turn AF is 12.00.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.
I suspect there's a variety of hands UTG+1 will raise the flop with. However, he would've raised PF with many of them. Among the possibilities I considered: Axs, KJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], KT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], KQ(?), QJ, or medium [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] connectors.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, SB folds, Hero...?
Call? Seems OK, I'm getting 7.5:1 against a very aggressive opponent. Anyone fold here against this type of opponent?

[dejableu]

I strongly doubt that a TAG is raising that flop with KQ or QJ. And even if it's a possibility, there is no way he raises again on the turn.

The turn also probably rules out medium [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] connectors. You're probably up against AJ or AT, perhaps a set of 2s. I think he would have raised preflop with AQ so you may very well be good if you hit a 7 on the river. You're getting 7.5: 1 on your bet (or 12 percent of the pot), and the odds of hitting a 7 are 7 percent. I probably fold. It's extremely unlikely that he calls UTG+2 with a worse A than A7.

[lil']

UTG+2 is ~18% VP$IP, 8.5% PFR. Flop AF is 15.00 and turn AF is 12.00.

This could be Chinese for all I know. Pokertracker takes all the fun out of the game.

Anyway, on to the hand. Your read is that he is very tight, no? So I think you can lay this one down. Against a loose-aggressive type I may be more apt to showdown.

[garyc8]

I am a TAG and if I was the guy UTG+2 your hand would as dead as Elvis. If he really is a TAG I put him on something like AT suited.

[InchoateHand]

ATs, AJo, 22 are the only hands I can see him raising you on the turn when no draw comes in. I think you can fold here if your read is correct and your PT stats are substantial.

[Entity]

If he really is a TAG, then wouldn't he raise ATs? Would he limp UTG+2 with ATo?

A2s/A8s seem possible too, I guess, if it's a loose game (doesn't look like it from preflop action, but whatever). ATo/AJo seem possible.

Fold is probably good.

[garyc8]

Personally, in this spot (UTG+2), I fold ATo, Raise AJo. I will, however sometimes limp with ATs or AJs. With a big suited hand I don't mind if many players call. W/ AJo I want to thin the field.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, in this spot (UTG+2), I fold ATo, Raise AJo. I will, however sometimes limp with ATs or AJs. With a big suited hand I don't mind if many players call. W/ AJo I want to thin the field.

[/ QUOTE ]
I raise ATs and AJs because my equity is so good, multiway or not. I don't mind if many players call when I have AA (I'll still win 30% of the time 10-handed, and 30% of large pots are great), but I still raise it because my equity is so large.

Rob

[MHarris]

The program code-looking numbers I posted basically mean: UTG+1 plays tight and aggressive preflop and almost hyper-aggressive postflop. I should have made it a point to emphasize just how aggressive this player is postflop.

[Alobar]

am I the only one who thinks an AF of 15 and 12 is ungodly insane high??

I dont like the stop and go here. I dont see a TAG raising for a free card in this spot given the board, so he likely has a hand. Id be more inclined to just check/call. But once you bet and he pops you I think you can safely let this one go. If indeed your notes are worthwhile