Hey, I got a free showdown...

[AliasMrJones]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: AliasMrJones is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">AliasMrJones raises</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (5.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">AliasMrJones raises</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">AliasMrJones bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: (6.70 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, AliasMrJones checks.

Final Pot: 6.70 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 6.70 BB, between AliasMrJones and UTG+1.</font>

UTG+1 was basic L/P with the fish icon. Likey? No-likey? Comments?

[jrobb83]

If my opponent is the fish icon I'm betting that river 100% of the time.

Even passive opponents will bet with less than an ace heads up there.

[J.R.]

Having the K of hearts makes the flop play better, but fish like to limp with Ax and passive players don't typically bet flush draws (or hands worse than KQ) into preflop raisers on A high boards (but aggressive players do), and given you have the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] its somewhat more likely that they don't have the flush draw than otherwise (maybe not much more likely, but the nut flush draw might be more inclined to play aggressive on this flop than a lesser draw, and Khxh may be a more common open-limping hand than other suited combinations).

Against a passive player I don't like your line that much, as the pot is small (5sbs on the flop), so you are risking 2 big bets to win 4 big bets if you are right and your hand holds up (a flush draw isn't a big dog on the flop, even though you hold the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]), so the passive player has to have a flush draw or worse hand more than half the time (the flush draw or other worse hand will improve and beat you some of the time). Not sure my math is right (I think its close) but my feel is you need a fairly aggressive player to make this play correct.

But if this type of player can bet the flop with a worse hand often enough, I like your line.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]

If my opponent is the fish icon I'm betting that river 100% of the time.

Even passive opponents will bet with less than an ace heads up there.



[/ QUOTE ]

Betting this river is terrible. Do you expect a worse king to call often enough for it to have value? If not, what other worse hands are calling?

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you expect a worse king to call often enough for it to have value? If not, what other worse hands are calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

A variety of hands could call my bet that bet out on the flop. A worse queen, a flush draw that paired up on the turn or river, or a medium pocket pair. Even a passive player tends to bet more hands heads up. And some very loose players will even call with K high here. If you take this line I think you have to bet the river. Loose players love to call. I disagree that you can narrow the hands he could bet the flop down to either an ace or a flush draw.

[joker122]

Very read dependent. I'd fold the flop agaianst *most* players.

[joker122]

What do you think his opponent has hero on? The most typical raising hands are big aces. This flop bet looks alot like a weak ace that's testing the waters. I can maybe see an argument for the line hero took which included showing down his hand, but a river bet is just bad.

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think his opponent has hero on? The most typical raising hands are big aces. This flop bet looks alot like a weak ace that's testing the waters. I can maybe see an argument for the line hero took which included showing down his hand, but a river bet is just bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

The opponent here doesn't have hero on any hand. He is a loose/bad player and likely not really thinking about what you have. He just sees that he has Ax, a flush draw, or a pocket pair and hopes that you fold when he bets on the flop.

If he only will bet the flop with Ax and a flush draw than the correct play is folding the flop. If you think his range of hands is greater than that, which by default you are saying by raising the flop, then I think that a river bet is in order. He will call you with virtually all the hands he bet the flop with (even a flush draw if he picked up a pair or has a king). I think that over 50% of the time he calls a river bet, given the above, you will have his hand beat.

I may be wrong, but certaintly think it's close enough so that a river bet isn't terrible. If a river bet is terrible against this opponent, then fold on the flop.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
The opponent here doesn't have hero on any hand. He is a loose/bad player and likely not really thinking about what you have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Were you at the table and picked up a read?

[ QUOTE ]
He just sees that he has Ax, a flush draw, or a pocket pair and hopes that you fold when he bets on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well Ax beats hero. I don't see a pocket pair calling down with an ace on board. The only legitimate thing you've mentioned is a flush draw that picked up a pair because at that point in the hand the pot has become semi big and he might make a crying call. This is possibility is almost neglible though.

[ QUOTE ]
If a river bet is terrible against this opponent, then fold on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.

[mikeyvegas]

I play it the same. I beleive the suggestion of folding the flop is bad bordering on terrible. 6.5 outs on the flop if hero is behind getting 6.4:1.