How Would You Play this PLH Hand?

PLH 5 and 10 blinds. Game is somewhat tighter than normal, but

usual cast of characters in a nine handed game. One early limper

and I am in the cutoff with AKh. I make it $40. Both blinds

call and UTG calls.


The flop comes T 9 4 with two hearts. It is checked to me and

I bet the pot. Both blinds fold and UTG raises me exactly $160.

(the size of the pot before the flop). We each have around

$700 remaining. I go all in and my opponent calls. My opponent

is on the loose side, but he is not a maniac and he is capable

of laying a hand down.


The turn and river do not improve my hand. My opponent turns

over pocket Sevens to win. I say nice hand (not sarcastically

either) and he goes on to tell everyone at the table how he

knew I had AK.


Questions and comments appreciated.


Bruce

Agaist his actual hand you are ahead when you put the money in (two overcards, nut flush draw, backdoor straight) 56-44/53-47 depending on if he held a heart or not. You are making money on every dollar going into the pot so from a FTOP standpoint the question is how do you get him to go all in. If he knew you had AhKh he made a mistake unless he thought you might fold it to his raise.


Against the hands he could of had you are in OK shape. Against AA or TT you are a 3:1 dog or better. His limp call preflop means in most of the opponents I see that he is more likely to have a smaller pair JJ-66. You are a favorite to 5/6s of those and 3:1 dog to 1/6 of them leaving you just about dead even. He could have a draw or a pair and a draw some of which you are a small (assuming there isn't a SF draw) dog to (Jh 9h assuming the 9 isn't a heard you are a 53-47 dog) or a pretty good favorite. I'd jam it up as you did unless my opponent was a good favorite to have a set in this situation. Make him aware all his money is going in the center in these situations.


I can't really see calling as now your lead has evaporated when the turn is a rag and if you are ahead and hit an ace, king, or a heart he is unlikely to pay you off yet if you are behind he will go all in so effectively a call gives him infinite odds on his last $700. I guess if you could really put him on a pair under ten but not a set that you've picked up a queen and possible a jack as extra turn outs but since you are acting second you can't do anything if he just sets you all in.


I couldn't tell if you showed AhKh at the end or if he just made that comment. If you did show I wouldn't have. You are in position and in many clubs do not have to show.

Do NOT leave this game. You can make a fortune.


The thing about this hand is, even if he really truly had a tell that you were betting a flush draw with overcards, he was a fool to get all in as a DOG. If the pot was $160, and you both had $700 left, he basically bet $700 to win about $70 of assured profit, since his equity in the $160 pot was a little less than 50%. That's a very high variance game to play and if stack sizes are huge, and hard to bust, it was a foolish play. Take into account that he can't be 100% sure of what you have, and his equity goes down to probably around $50, because those times that you actually DO have the overpair he is practically dead.


If he didn't have the 7h, he's even more foolish.


My opponent is on the loose side, but he is not a maniac and he is capable of laying a hand down.


You were apparently mistaken. [img]/images/smile.gif[/img]


One thing to note, I really don't like the play of going all-in on a two tone flop with the flush draw. Too many players can find a reason to put you on the flush draw and call you down with a weak holding. (which is exactly what happened, even though he was DOG). This eliminates one of the major reasons to bet the draw aggressively.


Some will argue that you have mix it up in order to keep 'em guessing. Don't worry, all the other players are doing that for you. Many big bet players play a flush draw like it's the nuts. They are doing a fine job of generating action for you when you flop a set with a two tone flop.


Against a real expert genius player who keeps track of the betting patterns of each and every opponent of his, you might start to mix it up against that one player only. But in general, be careful about pushing flush draws real hard in big bet hold'em. This advice goes against what a lot of experts would tell you, but I believe it's right.


natedogg

"I can't really see calling as now your lead has evaporated when the turn is a rag..."


It sounds like you missed that he went all in on the flop and didn't have to call a bet on the turn?

"One thing to note, I really don't like the play of going all-in on a two tone flop with the flush draw ..."


Does that also apply to this case where he has the two nut overcards, which it looks like might be good maybe 70% of the time that he hits them (it doesn't look like opponent will have AA-KK or two pair/set very often)? I would think you are talking about a nut (or nonnut) flush draw where you suspect pairing won't give you much of a chance to win it. Especially in this case, where all the money went in on the flop, so you can't lose a big stack to a redraw.


Just curious, I don't really know anything about PL or NL besides what I read here.

Coileen,


While I have of course never met Bruce's opponent, and while his $160 raise is rather bizarre (a typical raise would be much larger), it is unlikely that Bruce's overcards are good if they hit against a typical opponent. Likely hands for his opponent to have are a set of 10s, 9s, or 4s, QhJh, A10s, and the less likely 109s. Against the sets, Bruce's hand wins 35%, against the QhJh it wins 60%, against A10s it wins 45%, and against the 109s it wins 35%. There are 9 way for his opponent to have a set, which I will count as 8 ways, since he may not play pocket 4s. There is one way to have QhJh. It's hard to say how many A10s combos there are from the hand description, so let's say 2.5. There are 3 ways to have 109s, but I'll count that as 1.5 ways, because it is likely that he would have folded that preflop. Summing these weighted probabilities gives you the result that Bruce's hand will end up a winner 30% of the time if the money goes in on the flop. Of course, there is some chance that Bruce's opponent doesn't have one of those hands, but if that is the case, it's also probably true that he won't call Bruce's all in bet. While calling means that Bruce may get moved off of his hand on the turn with a bluff, it also means that Bruce will miss the chance to get his opponents bluff money if Bruce makes a flush on the turn. All in all, I think that Bruce is probably better off calling here than raising.


With that said, moving lots of chips in with a big draw is a great move in big bet if done at the right time. I just don't think that this is a great spot.


-Dan

I think you played the hand well. As Natedogg pointed out, semibluffing with a flush draw is pretty common. In this case your hand is so strong that I think it's a good idea. I don't really know what to make of UTG's mini re-raise. He could be scared or have monster like top set. either way there is so much money in the pot you might as well increase your equity by giving him one more chance to fold. I can't believe he called his entire stack with pukey pocket sevens.

You made the right play by putting him all-in after such a meager raise. If he had a set, he'd have either flat called or raised the pot- his raise indicated just what he said afterwards, that he thought you had AK. You tried to reassure him that you did not, and he called his whole stack. I would have put him on one pair, and made the same move. I think that he made a huge mistake going all-in in this spot, and if you continue to get in this situation with him you will make money. If you only call, he will most probably know right where you are at. By calling a weak raise, you probably confirm his suspicions and cost yourself money if you do make a hand. I think you did right.

no comments about good or bad, right or wrong---


pot limit is about all I have played for 10 years, and I can tell you this is not an uncommon situation, where small pair decides other guy is betting on a flush draw--calls--wins.


give the devil his dues, he made a decision, and it worked out for him. if AK had 15 outs that means 32 cards would NOT win for him.....

No doubt there are many times when you can correctly put someone on a draw and thus play back with weak hand. On this particular hand I think you could make a decent argument that the 77 guy played badly. That is because Bruce showed strengh 3 times. He raised before the flop, he raise on the flop and he re-raised on the flop. AhKh is the weakest possible hand 77 can put on Bruce and even then 77 is still a dog.