flopping the small full in PLH

PLH game, one 50 cent blind, stacks around 70, except for me with 130 and another player with over 200.


I have 33 and limp in from middle position, one caller from late and the blind (BigStack) checks.


Flop comes A3A, blind checks, I bet, caller calls, blind raises pot.


I cannot put him on AA, he would have raised preflop (aggressive player), A3 is also very unlikely, so I reraise. Caller drops, blind reraises me.


At this point I am quite sure he has a lonely Ace, probably a weak to medium kicker.


My question: do I raise all-in right now, or do I bet the turn all-in?

How big of a favorite am I against the lone Ace?


Stephan

My take is that he has two chances at two outs out of 46 = (52-flop[3] - you[2] - his ace[1]). I give him 8.6% chances. Its a bit less if you consider the case 3 helping you - so you are better than 9-1 favorite.


As for what to do - put all the money in and say "lets see how good your kicker is" (-:

I figure he has 4 outs on the flop (one A, three of his kicker) and 3 more on the turn (e.g. running pair) to beat me.


According to Pokerwiz, he wins 23% of the time.


I did move in on the flop and he caught a running pair to beat me. His kicker was a ten, by the way.


Stephan

sorry you lost that hand, but you did play it right...if you can play same hand, flop, etc amillion times you will get rich....

Stephan - Did your poker wiz take into account the remaining 3? I agree with your 4 and then 7 outs thing - opps

I did take the case three into account.


S