NFL Week 4 Picks

craig r · #1 10-02-2004, 12:54 AM

8-8 YTD: I took advantage of some of Bowmans reduced juice today. I don't think the lines will rise too much higher than what they are at now. I have given some of my reasons on some of these already.

Buf +7 (took monday, not reduced juice)
JAX +4.5 (ev)
ARI +3.5 (+105)
TB +3.5 (ev)

Craig

JesusSmurf · #2 10-02-2004, 02:52 AM

What book are you getting ev on. Did you mean -110?

craig r · #3 10-02-2004, 03:20 AM

No, it was EV, because of reduced juice at Bowmans.

craig

craig r · #4 10-03-2004, 12:57 PM

MIA +7 -120 (bought from 6.5)

craig r · #5 10-03-2004, 06:48 PM

adding SF +4 (bowmans)

craig

craig r · #6 10-03-2004, 07:48 PM

Even though Sunday night's game has not happened yet, I wonder if betting every home dog blindly would have been the better play. it would be 5-3-1 right now. but, i don't like betting blindly. even though home dogs are the only winning subset in nfl.

i also am glad that the season is longer than 4 weeks. i feel that as long as i keep getting good numbers (half to a point better) and don't lay a lot of wood that i should come out ahead at the end of the season (i have for the last 3 years).

but, this can be really frustrating when you are looking at a game go from a win, to a push, to a loss in 4 minutes. but, like all other forms of "gambling" there is a huge element of luck involved.

done with my rant.

craig

Lori · #7 10-03-2004, 08:03 PM

Maybe betting home dogs selectively would be a better plan.

If you have no edge through skill then blind luck may help out, and if you do, then maybe it would put you in a great position.

Just some thoughts.

Lori

NoChance · #8 10-03-2004, 08:15 PM

I just added SF +3.5.

According to Talksport, lots of books are getting hit heavy with the Rams, yet the line isn't moving and juice is actually going the opposite way.

Looks like they want action on the Rams. I'll take the niners.

Also like the over.

GL

Lori · #9 10-03-2004, 08:32 PM

I took the money line SF [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I then find I'm up against scalfie, who is on fire, so I think I'm doomed.

Lori

kdog · #10 10-03-2004, 09:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Even though Sunday night's game has not happened yet, I wonder if betting every home dog blindly would have been the better play. it would be 5-3-1 right now. but, i don't like betting blindly. even though home dogs are the only winning subset in nfl

[/ QUOTE ]

Home dogs are 4-4-1 so far today, not 5-3-1. They are also NOT a winning subset in the NFL. This year to date home dogs are 8-12-1 in the NFL and SF looks like another one going down.